Cy Young Futures
Dent Young. Farmer Young. Farmboy Young. Cyclone. Cy.
The Cy Young is arguably the coolest award name in baseball, so let's thank Cy's first catcher for giving him the nickname "Cyclone" due to how hard he threw. (The Farmboy Young Award would've sounded pretty weird.)
I have 4 units set aside for Cy Young Futures in 2023. This is how I am playing both the Al & NL side of things, with a combination of my favorite winner leans and the best dart throws to take.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL Favorite: Carlos Rodon (1u) +1000 on FanDuel, MGM
Things you need to win the Cy Young: low ERA, high Ks, and high Wins. The award is pretty old school in this regard, with things like FIP, xFIP, xERA, xwOBA, etc. all taking a back seat. Carlos Rodon did all 3 things well last year, despite playing for a .500 ball club. He was 2nd in the NL in strikeouts, 6th in ERA, and tied for 9th in Wins. His move to the Bronx gives him an obvious upgrade at securing more wins, but it also boosts his strikeout potential in a major way. Besides seeing some new faces, the AL East was a lot more K-prone than the NL West in 2022, and that trend should continue this season. The obvious concern would be for his ERA and the short dimensions at Yankee Stadium, but Rodon's elite numbers against lefties (.179 AVG, with only 2 HRs in 135 PAs) will mitigate this quite a bit. The dreaded short porch should not be an issue for him.
AL Backup: Jacob deGrom (0.5u) +600 on Caesar's, MGM
Jacob deGrom's stuff is the nastiest in the league amongst all starters—outside of maybe Spencer Strider (spoiler alert: he's my NL Backup choice). The only thing that would stop him from winning the AL award is volume and/or injury. He gets to see a lot of unfamiliar teams and faces this season, which always favors the pitcher in the short term—especially one as elite as deGrom. Oh, and his Rangers have 13 games against the lowly A's, so he should start against them at least 2 or 3 times. The only reason he is not my AL Favorite is simply the price. He is the odds-on leader as of now, so the juice isn't really worth the squeeze.
AL Dart Throws:
Luis Castillo (0.2u) +2000 on FanDuel
Castillo changed his approach and arsenal halfway through last season, leaning more into a hard fastball and slider combo—while still sprinkling in his elite calling card changeup. Going from the worst pitching environment in Cincy to one of the very best in Seattle predictably helped his ERA a ton, and it also gives him a lot more win potential in 2023. Logging an entire season for a winning ball club in a pitcher's park puts Castillo firmly in the Cy Young conversation if he stays healthy.
Framber Valdez (0.2u) +2000 on FanDuel
Framber was downright dominant in the playoffs for the 'Stros, and you could even argue he was snubbed of a World Series MVP. I expect that to continue from day 1 this season, with him firmly slotted into the top rotation spot and very likely the opening day starter with Verlander now in New York. Last year, he threw 201 innings, struck out 194, and won 17 games. With similar numbers likely coming in 2023 (Houston is the current odds-on favorite to win the World Series again), it's hard not to love this price. Back-to-back Astro Cy Young winners would not surprise me at all.
Chris Sale (0.1u) +10000 on FanDuel
Yes, this is an obvious long shot given the durability concerns, but this price is worth the sprinkle. When he finally made his 2022 debut, vintage Sale made an appearance out of nowhere as he shutout the Rays for 5 innings and struck out 5 on just 78 pitches. That may not seem like a big deal, until you realize just how well Tampa Bay was against LHP last season—both in terms of hitting (9th best) and K-rate (4th lowest). It's important to remember that all 3 injuries he suffered in the last calendar year were random, non-arm related setbacks. He very well could be Boston's ace right out of the gate and never look back until they surprise everyone with a playoff run.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL Favorite: Aaron Nola (1u) +1300 on FanDuel
As much as I truly love Corbin Burnes' shot at another Cy Young this season, I can't force myself to drink that much juice (+500) on my main choice. Instead, I am going to roll with Nola in a contract year. As I mentioned above, you need Wins, Ks and a solid ERA to take home the hardware, and Nola annually checks all 3 boxes when healthy. Last year, he struck out 235 (3rd), logged 205 IP (2nd), and won 11 games. If he can stay in the 30-start range—something he has done in 4 of 5 seasons, including the last 2—he will be in the mix at the top of all 3 important categories again. I love the Phillies lineup this year with the addition of Trea Turner to help carry them until Harper returns, and Nola has a chance to truly shine as he chases down a potentially massive pay day in free agency.
NL Backup: Spencer Strider (0.5u) +1500 on Caesar's, MGM
Much like deGrom in the AL, Strider's stuff is just downright filthy. He led all starters last season with an absurd 13.8 K/9, which extrapolates out to about 240 Ks in just 155 innings. That would've been just 3 strikeouts behind Corbin Burnes who led the NL last season. If he were to maintain last year's K-rate and somehow climb to 165+ innings, he will likely blow everyone away in both Wins & Strikeouts, and coast to the trophy case. This is a pretty large IF however, with most projections having him around 140 IP. Volume will most likely prevent this one from manifesting, but if the Braves let him cook, the sky's the limit.
NL Dart Throws:
Julio Urias (0.2u) +2000 on FanDuel
Urias is the ace-in-waiting for one of the very best teams in the league, as he continues to deliver excellent numbers each season. He's still just 26 years old, but successfully got up to 175 IP with 166 Ks and 17 wins, while maintaining an NL-best 2.16 ERA last season. If he can push the overall volume just a tad higher, he could make that final leap and take home his first (of possibly multiple) awards.
Brandon Woodruff (0.2u) +4000 on PointsBet
Woodruff's 11.2 K per 9 was the 5th best in the NL last season (even better than teammate Corbin Burnes), pointing to plenty of upside if he can stay healthy and eat up more innings. With the Brewers expecting to be very competitive again, their elite 1-2 punch of Burnes & Woodruff could both be heavily involved in the Cy Young conversation by year's end.
Charlie Morton (0.1u) +15000 on FanDuel
Uncle Charlie had an off year in terms of ERA, mostly due to giving up a shockingly high number of HRs (his 28 allowed was 4th most in the NL). All of his peripherals point to him still having elite stuff, and all of his other numbers mostly agree. He was 5th in strikeouts, 7th in K per 9, and he had the durability to throw 172 innings. If he can reel in both the walks and the long balls, you are looking at a severely underpriced Cy Young contender with a great team behind him.
