How to Bet on Home Run Props, A Beginner’s Guide
I wrote a more detailed breakdown on my home run betting process, which can be found right here, but the following is the perfect quick guide for brand new bettors or for those looking to finally dip their toes into Home Runs. There's few things in gambling more electric than watching a guy—or 2, or even 3 guys—you bet on launch a baseball into the summer night sky, so let's get you started!
Find High Totals
Identify Bad Pitchers
Lean Into Power
Wait For Lineups
Sprinkle Away!
1. Find High Totals - The sportsbooks do a lot of the initial work for you with Game Totals, so find the highest ones on a given day and make note of them. 8 or higher is solid; anything above 9 is excellent. You typically also want to prioritize the team favored to win a game with a high total (they will naturally have the highest team implied totals).
2. Identify Bad Pitchers - Bad starters are often found in games with high totals, so it's great if you can check both of these boxes right away. Check the Strikeout, Hit and Earned Run props in a high total game to see who is expected to give up a lot of contact. You can also easily look up the ERA of a pitcher. It's an inconsistent base-level stat, but it is easy to find and can identify bad pitchers on the fly for you (anything above a 4.0 ERA is worth targeting; 4.5 or higher is even better).
3. Lean Into Power - It goes without saying, but a team's power hitters are more likely to hit one out of the park than their faster, smaller teammates. Much like ERA, you can easily look up which players have accumulated a lot of HRs. There's no exact science to this, but generally you will find these guys batting 3rd, 4th or 5th in their team's lineup. If you are truly brand new to betting on home runs, look to these spots in the batting order first after you’ve found a high total to target.
4. Wait For Lineups - This might be the most common mistake bettors make when betting on home runs. It's great to identify the players you want to wager on ahead of time, but wait for the official lineups to come out before locking in. If a player gets the day off, your bet is either immediately voided or, worse: it still has action in case he comes in late for a pinch-hit plate appearance. Most star players and regular starters play the majority of the games, but many of them also get a game off every 6 to 10 games. Don't kill your slip before the game even starts.
Another reason to wait for lineups is that unexpected value can show up. A bench bat who crushes lefties may suddenly draw a start, a starter who normally bats 7th may get slotted 2nd due to other players taking the day off, etc. Plenty of scenarios exist where a game with a high total and bad pitching suddenly uncovers elite betting values that weren’t originally projected to be there.
5. Sprinkle Away - Once you've identified the players you want to wager on, it is important to mention bankroll and being mindful of risk. Home run bets are an absolute blast, but even with all of the data and research in the world, they are still relatively longshot bets. They should never make up the majority of your daily units risked. I always say, "Sprinkle away!" because my goal is for 10% or less (ideally 5%) of my wagers each day to be tied to home runs. You can still hit a great payday on any given night with a 2-man or 3-man home run parlay, while also keeping your risk in check.
