MLB 2026: What’s New?!
Betting on MLB in 2026: What You Need to Know!
Last spring, I broke down how to bet on MLB for 2025, including key park factor information, players on new teams, and a lot more. I highlighted both the Athletics and the Rays temporary homes as great launch pads for Home Run bets and both came true in all of the biggest and best ways for us. Let's see what's new in 2026...
PARK FACTORS
Let's start with Park Factors. A lot of you already know this, but every single MLB ballpark is unique and provides different advantages and disadvantages for both hitters and pitchers thanks to varying field dimensions and environments. 2 teams have noteworthy venue changes for 2026, and this could lead to early edges in the betting markets (just like the A's & Rays last season!).
1. The Kansas City Royals are bringing in most of their outfield walls by about 8-10 feet, and they are also lowering the height to 8.5 feet across the board (some spots were as high as 18.5 feet before!). This will lead to more HRs for the Royals and teams that visit, with the most notable boost going to pull-heavy power bats (CF remains unchanged). Sal Perez (47% pull-rate; 38% hard hit-rate), Vinnie Pasquantino (45%; 34%), and Jac Caglianone (43%; 37%) look to benefit the most, but Bobby Witt's all-fields approach should still see a few more bombs as well. Also, don't sleep on Carter Jensen (46%, 54%!), who will be getting regular playing time from the jump. All of these hitters will show up often in my home run reports and HR betting this season. The other side of the coin is the effect the venue changes will have on KC's pitching. Outside of Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, they simply do not miss enough bats and will see a bump to HRs allowed (especially Seth Lugo).
2. The Tampa Bay Rays are playing the Uno reverse card on casual bettors after a barrage of offense & HRs in 2025, as they move back to their usual home in Tropicana Field. This is a controlled dome environment that has historically favored pitching in a major way. The Trop owns the 4th highest strikeout park factor, with it notably adding increased induced vertical break (IVB) on fastballs, while also having a difficult batter's eye for hitters. It also has always had one of the lowest home run park factors, which should lead to longer starts and higher compiling stats (Ks & Outs) for pitchers. Buy all of the Rays pitching shares this season, especially Pepiot who has one of the game's best four-seamers in terms of ideal shape and performance. Pepiot, Drew Rasmussen, & Shane McClanahan should pile up the Ks this season, as all 3 get to enjoy the closest thing to playing in a pitching lab as you will find in an MLB park.
3. The Athletics get to enjoy another season in Sutter Health Park, where the ball was flying in 2025. Nothing has changed for them, but if you want to bet on HR Parlays this season, it is once again one of the absolute best venues to look at.
RULE CHANGES
ABS is finally here to stay after a successful test run in the minors. The umps were overall great last season, but they still missed 15,000 strikes (that were called balls) and 11,000 balls (that were called strikes). One of the largest blind spots for umps was the low and away fastball to RHHs—especially two-seamers/sinkers—leaving some K growth possible for pitchers who get glove-side movement and live in that zone (looking at you, Logan Webb!). The other major spot for K improvement is high up in the zone, with the following pitchers all having the most high missed strikes last season: Luis Severino, Quinn Priester, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Webb, Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan, Shane Baz, Dean Kremer, and Chad Patrick. From a predictive standpoint, SPs who throw elite fastballs up in the zone that could benefit the most this season include the following: George Kirby, Tyler Mahle, Shota Imanaga, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Joe Ryan, Luis Castillo, and Jacob deGrom. The quick non-nerdy summary to all of this: high fastballs should lead to more called strikes this season, so bet on those pitchers' Overs for your early K Props this season.
NEW HOME, WHO DIS?
Players getting new ballparks and lineups to call home can be a good or bad thing. Here are some worth noting, as we look to take advantage of early player prop pricing:
1. Kyle Tucker (LAD) - Tucker is moving from one of the absolute worst home parks for lefty power to one of the best. Plus, this is easily the greatest lineup he's ever been a part of. If his HRs are mispriced early on, I will be all-in on some early action. He's also not a bad MVP dart throw, as he likely will end with the highest counting stats of his career.
2. Pete Alonso (BAL) - Alonso's move is a bit of a downgrade for his power output, with both Citi Field & Camden profiling similarly for home runs, but Camden is noticeably worse for RHHs (despite the walls coming in a bit in LF already).
3. Dylan Cease (TOR) - The Jays putting this much capital behind Cease tells me they have plans to help him take another step as a pitcher. I'm not convinced they will be successful—he's tried to add every pitch type already after all—but they will try. He already misses a ton of bats, but struggles as the game gets longer and batters see his 2-pitch mix more and more. If we see a legit additional pitch added to his arsenal (maybe a new, harder splitter taught by Gausman?), he could make a run at Cy Young while we cash his K Props all summer long.
4. Framber Valdez (DET) - Framber's biggest strength has always been his ability to go deep into games, often clearing strikeout lines on the back of elite volume. That won't change with the move to one of the best pitcher parks in MLB (where are my Outs Over bettors at?). However, I also love him to improve quite a bit on the K-rate this season for a couple of reasons: 1. the move to a weaker division with a couple of young, undisciplined (bad) teams, and 2. so many hitters in the AL Central just have not seen his stuff that much. I will be all aboard the Framber K train—at least early on in the season in the right matchups.
5. Eugenio Suarez (CIN) - This is the single most dramatic park factor shift among hitters on the move this season. Seattle is a terrible place to hit, and Suarez batted .211 with 35 HRs across 804 total PAs during his times there. He's now moving back to GABP in Cincinatti, where he already had a 49 homer season, and where he owns a career .260 Avg and has slugged 101 HRs across 1835 PAs. Reds home games are always a common HR Parlay target for us, and Suarez will be a massive part of that mix this season.
6. Alex Bregman (CHC) - It's fade city on Bregman this season, outside of the rare Wrigley field launch pad game (with the wind blowing straight out). He's always gotten the most out of a pull-heavy approach to put up solid HR numbers, and that was aided heavily by a short porch in Houston. He only hit 18 HRs last season, and I expect even less as a 32-year old playing in Wrigley (even if he logs more PAs).
Other prominent players in new homes that I do not have any strong convictions on—but are worth keeping an eye on for possible betting discrepancies—include: Freddy Peralta (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), Sonny Gray (BOS), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Luis Robert (NYM), Taylor Ward (BAL), Ranger Suarez (BOS), MacKenzie Gore (TEX), and Brandon Lowe (PIT).
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