MLB Betting Preview: August 7th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my Home Run Report and my very first DFS Slips & K Prop grabs of the night in my DubClub, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: None, but the best are WAS vs. ATH & PIT vs. CIN
Best parks for home runs: None, but the best are ATL vs. MIA & WAS vs. ATH
Early HR targets: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Brent Rooker (ATH)
Pitchers I like: Logan Gilbert (SEA)
Pitchers I would fade: Carlos Carrasco (ATL)
Tiny 4-game slate, but a few electric arms on the bump!
First look at Hitter Props:
This is not only a tiny slate (4 games), but there are zero standout offensive spots in the mix. This may be a day to just take a breather and recharge for the stretch run, but if you want some action I would lean into the Athletics vs. Mitchell Parker & a pretty bad Nats bullpen. I also like the young Marlins to stay hot and smack around Carlos Carrasco a bit.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) vs. Singer: 17 PAs, .429 Avg & 1 XBH
Andrew Benintendi (CWS) vs. Gilbert: 14 PAs, .357 Avg & 4 XBHs
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) vs. Smith: 3 PAs, .333 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Paul Skenes (PIT) will likely get a 6.5 line against the Reds, and I just can’t see myself pulling the trigger. There are new faces in that Cincy lineup with more contact, and we also don’t know what kind of workload the Pirates have in mind for him.
That leaves us with one very obvious standout K Prop target—at least for Overs—with Logan Gilbert (SEA) getting the lowly White Sox at home. His numbers at T-Mobile are bonkers, so don’t shy away from a 7.5 (especially if it is at +Money). It’s worth a long look, even if you want to wait for the Sox lineup first.
Eury Perez (MIA) has also been dealing as he settles back into the Marlins rotation, with a 2.4 ERA & 24% K-rate. The Braves have nothing to really play for and their current lineup is anything but intimidating.
Potential Unders, though all are lineup/price dependent: Carlos Carrasco (ATL), Mitchell Parker (WAS), & Shane Smith (CWS).
Stay green!
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