MLB Betting Preview: August 5th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! You can always access my Home Run Report and my very first DFS Slips & K Prop grabs of the night in my DubClub, but I will also post a free article (like this one!) as my schedule allows.
Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, pitchers getting scratched, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: COL vs. TOR, WAS vs. ATH, ARI vs. SD
Best parks for home runs: COL vs. TOR, LAA vs. TB, WAS vs. ATH
Early HR targets: Vlad Guerrero (TOR), Mickey Moniak (COL), Corbin Carroll (ARI)
Pitchers I like: Bryan Woo (SEA), Shota Imanaga (CHC), Yu Darvish (SD), Logan Webb (SF)
Pitchers I would fade: Dean Kremer (BAL), Kyle Freeland (COL), Logan Allen (CLE), Zack Littell (CIN)
Coors leads the way for offense by a lot on this slate. A ton of high-end arms on the bump too!
First look at Hitter Props:
Looking at this slate from a park factors standpoint, it’s Coors Field again by a mile—both for home runs & runs in general. As a bonus for the Jays in their second game at elevation, they get to pick on a lefty (Kyle Freeland). They are 5th in Avg, 3rd in OBP, and 8th in wOBA vs. LHP this season, and it’s also entirely possible the Rockies bullpen gets torched on Monday night (they are just about to start as of this writing). I won’t be shocked at all if we see a position player pitch in the next 3 games for them.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Darvish: 42 PAs!, .290 Avg & 2 HRs
Freddie Freeman (LAD) vs. Mikolas: 21 PAs, .450 Avg & 3 HRs
Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Darvish: 18 PAs, .533 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
There is a lot of interesting pitching spots on this slate, so I will touch on those I am eyeing the most for some K Props…
There’s no debating this one, whether you realize it or not: Bryan Woo (SEA) is an ace. I imagine we see a 17.5 or even 18.5 Outs line, which should allow him to easily find 6+ Ks against the lowly White Sox.
Normally, I would be all over Logan Webb (SF) against the Pirates (we were in his last start & he K’d 11!), but a back-to-back matchup typically favors the hitters. I would be careful with this one, but it’s hard not to love another 5.5 if the books give it to us.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is an entirely different pitcher this year. He has a deep arsenal and no longer fully relies on keeping his velo up to succeed, and his numbers are simply elite so far. Add in a Yankee team that is K’ing a ton, plus a great history vs. Eovaldi (for him) and it’s hard no to like an o5.5 in this spot.
This is a copy/paste from last night’s first look, with Zebby getting bumped a day again: Zebby Matthews (MIN) had a rough start last time out, but it was a perfect storm of a ton of contact bats and hitter-friendly weather. I could see his slider doing major work if he can hit his spots, and I would be way in if they somehow give us a 4.5 (but we likely see 5.5+). This kid has elite command and is already striking out 29% of all hitters despite plenty of struggles.
Some other spots where there could be value for Overs (& possibly even small ladders) includes Ryan Pepiot (TB), Shota Imanaga (CHC) & Yu Darvish (SD).
Lastly, the not-as-fun-but-still-very-profitable part: My initial Under leans include Zack Littell (CIN), Taijuan Walker (PHI), Ryne Nelson (ARI), Logan Allen (CLE) & Dean Kremer (BAL). All are line and/or lineup dependent though.
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
