The Undertaker: Strikeout Futures for 2023
It's no secret that the MLB season is a different animal: a 162-game grind that tests players' mettle on an almost daily basis. While I do play some full season Over props (if the value is strong enough), I prefer to lean into the Unders whenever possible.
Starting pitchers in particular offer a ton of opportunities to fade inflated stat lines, due to having higher injury risk than other pitchers and most hitters. It's simply not normal to put that much strain on your arm 100 times a day every five days for 6+ months without any issues popping up.
So with that said, below you will find all of my favorite season-long Under Strikeout Player Props based solely on my projections. In addition to the players having to outperform these projections for us to lose, they also have to avoid injuries, slumps, trades, skills decline with age, and dozens of other external factors in order to hit the Over. The cards are stacked against MLB season-long Overs from the start, and with solid juice on all of these we just need to hit on 4 of them to land green!
Dylan Cease, u225.5 - I have him projected for 217. His lack of control leads to a lot of long innings, and he won't be as lucky this year in terms of BABIP and strand rate—especially with the new bases, pick-off rules and shift restrictions in place. His awful 3.8 BB/9 led all qualified starters, and his K-rate dropped by 10% in the 2nd half (34.4% to 24.8%), possibly pointing to hitters figuring him out.
Sandy Alcantara, u195.5 - I have him projected for 188. Despite being the #1 workhorse in the entire league and throwing very hard, Sandy actually has a pretty pedestrian K-rate. He is elite at getting soft contact and ground balls, which has helped him go deep into games, but that will be mitigated quite a bit with the revised shift rules.
Max Scherzer, u210.5 - I have him projected for 198. Mad Max is way under this in 4 straight seasons, and I think the years of staying healthy the whole way are long gone for him. His 23 starts last year was the most in a long time, and even that wasn't enough to approach 180 Ks, let alone 200+.
Blake Snell, u183.5 - I have him projected for 174. Snell is basically a left-handed Cease, where the control can be totally lost at times, and the pitch count really piles up. The only time he ever eclipsed this mark was his 2018 Cy Young season. Otherwise, he has never surpassed 171 strikeouts. If you buy into contract year hype, you could give him a numbers bump, but I don't think he can make up this much of a gap.
Logan Webb, u170.5 - I have him projected for 162. Webb was as solid as they come in 2022 as the Giants' staff anchor, throwing over 192 innings and making 32 starts. Even with a fully healthy season and max volume, he topped out at 163 Ks. There is zero room for error for him to clear this line, where he would again need to not miss a start -and- increase the K-rate a bit.
Shane McClanahan u200.5 - I have him projected for 194. If McClanahan can stay healthy the entire way, and if the Rays do not limit down the stretch to be fresh for the playoffs (a very big IF for such an analytics-driven team), he could cruise past this line with more innings under his belt. He threw 123 innings in 2021 and 166 last year, making another jump in volume entirely possible. However, I also don't think someone with his kind of velocity and snappy breaking balls can last a full season without at least one issue popping up—just like last year. He will inevitably take breaks again, either by choice or by injury.
Jacob deGrom u205.5 - I have him projected for 185. The most elite strikeout artist I remember seeing with my own eyes is also the odds-on AL Cy Young favorite right now. So why fade him? His last 3 seasons consisted of 12, 15, and 11 starts. He still struck out over 100 each time, so if he can finally stay healthy again, this bet will lose. However, him needing to basically double his output from 2022 in a new park is something I will wager against. Much like McClanahan, something will come up that lightens his workload, as has happened in 5 of his 9 career seasons (including 3 straight).
It is entirely possible that you can find better lines and/or better juice on the main US books, so feel free to shop around a bit before locking any of these in.
Looking forward to cashing daily K Props all season long with you all!
