How I Bet: K Props
Wait. For. Lineups.
This is the #1 rule of betting K Props, and it has helped me find edges where they do not always exist when lines open. Unexpected lineup changes after most of the sharps have already placed their bets for the day is my greatest tool since I am constantly being hamstrung by Bovada (or any other non-US book). It's how I still remain profitable, despite having to wait 12+ hours after everyone else to get access to lines.
Speaking of lineups, there are always plenty of hitters each season that literally move the line at least 1 full K in my model when they are in the starting lineup. The most obvious being Joey Gallo last season. As his playing time dwindled, you could easily bake in an extra strikeout on the days he was suddenly granted a start. Outside of him, there were plenty more. Keep these hitters in mind and keep an eye out as you start to target Ks this season.
Joey Gallo, Minnesota Twins
A team who is not known for handing out large contracts made it rain a bit this offseason, and Gallo getting $11 million means he will get a shot at an everyday role—most likely in RF. He was the poster child of individual K Prop targets last year for me, and that won't change until he proves otherwise. He finished 15th in total strikeouts in '22, while logging nearly 200 fewer ABs than the 14 above him on the list. His 39.8% K-rate led all hitters with at least 300 PAs by a wide margin. Bonus: there is talk of his patient approach landing him in the leadoff spot vs RHP to start the season, giving even more value to his K Prop influence.
Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers
There is no guarantee of playing time—or of even a roster spot—but if his bat makes its way onto the Brew Crew's bench, he will be the perfect guy to keep an eye on when lineups drop every day. His 41.7% K-rate is a juicy target, and with his offensive splits being predictably better against RHP, he will be a prime K candidate every time out since he still strikes out a ton against righties (40.8% K-rate).
José Barrero, Cincinnati Reds
It is crazy to think about now, but Barrero was the #1 rated Reds prospect at this time last year ahead of both Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene. Things never really clicked for him, as he struck out a whopping 76 times in just 174 PAs (43.7% K-rate) in the majors. With Kyle Farmer gone, the Reds seem to want to give him a shot to earn the everyday SS job, adding one more mega juicy K Prop piece to an already amazing lineup to target for strikeouts.
Joey Bart, San Francisco Giants
Catchers are one of the biggest K Prop edges to keep an eye on for all 30 teams, as you have two likely very different offensive players that could trot out there on any given day. Bart rocked a 38.5% K-rate last year across 291 PAs, giving a really nice bonus to the Over against the Giants hitters most days. Also, don't look now, but the Giants are eyeballing Gary Sanchez a bit too. It may just be a free K or two every single game from the San Fran backstop in 2023.
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cruz is an athletic freak who has changed what we thought was possible in terms of exit velocities and non-pitcher throws in the statcast era (he now owns records for both after his rookie season). However, there are still plenty of holes in his swing, and as a bonus he should bat leadoff a lot for PIttsburgh. Getting 4 or 5 cracks at one of the league leaders in strikeout rate (34.9% last season)—no matter how dangerous he can be—is all you can ask for when targeting lineups for K Props.
Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs
Wisdom will be a prime sneaky value to keep an eye on (like Gallo was at the end of his Yankee tenure), as his playing time will likely be sporadic and unpredictable with so many new faces fighting for time at 3B, 1B, and DH for the Cubs. As a career .217 hitter with a 37% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate, he is one of the prototypical three true outcome hitters we are starting to see more and more of in modern baseball. He swings hard and he misses a lot.
Honorable mentions and names worth remembering: Jo Adell (LAA), Mike Zunino (now in Cleveland, who was the hardest team to K last year), Trayce Thompson & Chris Taylor (LAD, a team whose lineup changes often and can bring a handful of unexpected positive K Prop options on any given day), Nick Pratto (KCR), Shea Langeliers (OAK)
Outside of the specific hitters I just highlighted, here are the final standings from last season in terms of best K Prop targets as an entire team. I also included their rank over the final month, as some team rosters changed drastically:
Team (Overall Rank, L30 Games Rank):
Over Prop Targets:
1. LAA (1st, 14th)
2. PIT (2nd, 15th)
3. ATL (3rd, 9th)
4. DET (4th, 19th)
5. MIA (5th, 8th)
6. TEX (6th, 1st)
7. CIN (7th, 12th)
8. MIL (8th, 6th)
9. SFG (9th, 3rd)
10. CHC (10th, 2nd)
Neutral Targets:
11. OAK (11th, 4th)
12. TBR (12th, 23rd)
13. BAL (13th, 20th)
14. SEA (14th, 10th)
15. NYY (15th, 11th)
16. PHI (16th, 18th)
17. BOS (17th, 22nd)
18. ARI (18th, 7th)
19. MIN (19th, 13th)
20. LAD (20th, 16th)
Under Prop Targets:
21. COL (21st, 5th)
22. SDP (22nd, 24th)
23. KCR (23rd, 25th)
24. CHW (24th, 17th)
25. WAS (25th, 21st)
26. TOR (26th, 26th)
27. STL (27th, 28th)
28. NYM (28th, 27th)
29. HOU (29th, 30th)
30. CLE (30th, 29th)
I will be referencing this list as a large part of my approach to begin the 2023 season. I recommend you bookmark or copy/paste it for safekeeping!
