MLB 2025: What’s New?!
Betting on MLB in 2025: What You Need to Know!
Last spring, I broke down how to bet on MLB for 2024 (read the X thread here!), including key park factor information, advanced hitter and pitcher metrics to use, and a lot more. All of that is still true and relevant, but there is additional new info for 2025 that you need to know.
PARK FACTORS
Let's start with Park Factors. If you read last year's thread, you already know every single MLB ballpark is unique and provides different advantages and disadvantages for both hitters and pitchers. 3 teams have noteworthy venue changes for 2025, and this could lead to early edges in the betting markets.
1. The Tampa Bay Rays will be playing all of 2025 in George M. Steinbrenner Field due to hurricane damage to the Trop. This field—as you can maybe guess by the name—has the exact same dimensions as hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. There's the infamous short porch in right field and perhaps most importantly: every game will be outside in the Florida heat & humidity. This will lead to more carry on all flyballs (and potentially a lot more HRs). On the pitching side, Tropicana Field was always more pitcher-friendly with fastballs having better shape and batters in general struggling there (possibly due to the batter's eye or the indoor lighting). Regardless, this is a ding against pitcher performance in their new park, likely leading to shorter outings, less strikeouts and more earned runs. I would not be shocked if one or both of Jonathan Aranda and Brandon Lowe smack 30+ HRs in their new home, with both having legit pull-happy lefty power. I also would not be shocked if Ryan Pepiot leads the league in HRs allowed by a pitcher.
2. The Oakland Athletics, now just 'the Athletics', will be playing their home games in a minor league ballpark in Sacramento. The weather should be a bit warmer for more carry on batted balls, and they are also getting an all-around smaller park to hit in. Oakland Coliseum was one of the absolute best picher venues in MLB, with deep fences, cooler/windier bay area weather and massive foul ball real estate that led to more easy outs. While not as extreme of a change in venues as the Rays, I am expecting a small bump to offense and a small ding against pitching in the new A's home. There are a lot of young Athletics with legit pop that could be undervalued to start the season, with my favorite early HR targets being Shea Langeliers & Lawrence Butler. (I expect a huge power season from Brent Rooker, but he is a lot more likely to be appropriately priced.)
3. The Baltimore Orioles bumped out their left field fence a few years ago, making it the absolute worst spot in MLB for righty power to hit home runs. This year, they brought it back in 20' closer to home plate in most spots and also lowered the height in certain areas (as low as 6'). This will give a noticeable bump to any right-handed HR bat—both for the O's and their opponents—and it is also a minor ding against more home run prone SPs that take the bump on any given day. I am loving both Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg as early season home run targets if prop markets do not adjust for the new park dimensions. I also love the idea of betting on Adley Rutschman anytime he is facing a LHP early in the season, as this splits on paper point to more power from the left side (BUT a lot of that is due to home runs lost to the deep LF when he hits from the right side).
RULE CHANGES (BUT NOT REALLY)
Beyond these Park Factors, a couple minor rules have been updated for 2025. The shift ban is still in place, and the penalty is now more severe if a team violates the shift rules. Expect left handed hitters to continue to benefit from this, and mostly just expect similar offensive outputs across the board to what we've seen in the last 2 seasons. The other rule is a minor one about running through either second or third base, and should not affect betting much at all.
NEW HOME, WHO DIS?
Players getting new ballparks and lineups to call home can also be a good or bad thing. Here are some hitters worth noting, as we look to advantage of early player prop pricing:
1. Juan Soto is now on the Mets. He is leaving one of the absolute best parks for lefty home runs for one that is average at best on most summer days. Expect a drop in his power numbers, and fade him in any season-long HR markets that you can find.
2. Kyle Tucker is now on the Cubs. Just like all games at Wrigley, it can be a hitter's launch pad (wind blowing out) or a pitcher's paradise (wind blowing in). In general, I do not expect much of a change in his overall numbers because he impacts the ball so well, but pay attention to that wind for his home games!
3. Willy Adames is now a Giant. This is a significant home park downgrade in every single way. I expect his numbers to be down across the board. The only time I can see myself betting on him for a home run will be on the road.
4. Chrisitan Walker is now an Astro. This is a great bump to his righty power, and he will be an early target of mine for HRs—assuming prices are similar to last season out the gate. He’s the kind of hitter that should cash a 2 home run game in his new home park at least a couple times this year.
5. Isaac Paredes is also now an Astro, and nobody gets more out of pulling the ball down the left field line than him. This was the sharpest move the Astros made, as his swing and the shallow LF fence are a match made in heaven. We could see some sneaky pricing on his HRs early on in 2025.
6. Josh Naylor is now a Diamondback. This should be a downgrade to his power numbers, even though he is in a better overall lineup (expect great counting stats but less HRs). I would fade him in any season-long HR markets I can find.
7. Adley Rutschman (and the previously mentioned Ryan Mountcastle & Jordan Westburg, plus Tyler O'Neill) should all benefit from the new left field dimensions at Camden Yards. For Rutschman specifically, this will only come into play when facing a left handed pitcher since he is a switch hitter. He had legit MVP numbers early on before an injury derailed his season.
8. Anthony Santander is now a Blue Jay. I don't think his HR numbers will change much, but expect a downgrade in overall runs/RBI opportunities.
9. Alex Bregman is still a free agent. He would need to land in a great home for what little power he has for this to not end up being a downgrade. Boston or Houston would be good for him, with most other locations being bad. (UPDATE: Bregman is now in Boston which gives his power numbers new life & makes him a great HR prop target early on if the price is right.)
10. Cody Bellinger is now a Yankee. Similar to Paredes and the Stros, I see this as a match made in heaven. He should get a nice bump to all of his numbers across the board, and he will be one of my favorite early HR targets until the markets react.
11. Jake Burger is now a Ranger. Much like Bellinger above, I expect a bump to all of his numbers—especially power. He is getting a huge park upgrade and also getting a huge lineup upgrade. Plus, they shipped out Nathaniel Lowe to ensure everyday playing time. He has 40 HR upside in his new home if he can stay on the field.
12. Don't ever forget about the Rockies. When they're at home, they are massively in play for everything: HRs, runs, total bases, HRR, etc. Michael Toglia will be an early target (but likely to be priced appropriately), and my favorite sneaky play will be the newly signed Thairo Estrada who has always raked there as a visitor and joins the team with modest power numbers after playing his career in the massively pitcher-friendly Giants home park(s).
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