Hits, Home Runs, & Runs, Oh My
BetUS has some additional MLB Futures up, and I couldn’t resist grabbing some pretty amazing values vs. my current full-season projections. (Shameless plug: you can join me via THIS LINK and we’ll both get free play cash. You can use it to play K Props with me all summer in fact!)
MLB Hits Leader
Favorite Pick: Freddie Freeman (0.5u) +1200
There is one thing all 3 guys I am targeting for the Hits Leader crown have in common: they are left-handed batters. In addition to the other main factors that make me love them, you cannot ignore the additional boost they will see due to the shift restrictions this season. To kick things off: the fact Freddie Freeman is not the odds-on favorite is pretty strange, so I absolutely love getting him at +1200 (4th best odds). He led MLB in hits last season, and he will still bat 2nd behind Mookie in one of the best lineups in baseball. Yes, he's 33 but he showed zero signs of aging last season across virtually all hitting metrics. The 2020 MVP has been shifted on in 64% of his at bats in the last 2 years, so despite being an all-fields hitter, he will see a natural uptick in the hit count department this season. He's also one of the lowest injury risks in all of baseball, as playing 1B and not running much has allowed him to play 158+ games in 4 of 5 seasons—incredible volume.
Dart Throw: Steven Kwan (0.1u) +5000
Steven Kwan will be penciled in as the Guardians' leadoff hitter from game 1, which should allow him to approach 600 ABs in a full/healthy season. He finished 16th in hits last year across just 563 ABs, and his quick takeoff out of the box (18th fastest from Home to 1st) should lead to even more singles without the shift in '23. His chase rate and K% are absolutely elite, so anytime he is not earning a walk, the ball will be in play with a shot at converting yet another hit. Even if everything stays exactly the same, he will be in the total hits leader conversation, but one has to expect at least some improvement in his 2nd year as a pro to further his chances at finishing as #1.
Dart Throw: Corey Seager (0.1u) +5000
The largest victim of the shift in 2022 by a mile, and really in the last 3 years, is Corey Seager. By most metrics, his .245 average last season should have actually been much closer to .280 (his xBA was .283!). That is a lot of hits lost that he could get back this season, plus another year of familiarity in what was a brand new division last year. He hit .255 against fastballs, the pitch he sees the most, and his xBA on FBs alone was .308. It is obviously not an exact science due to tons of other factors, but if you give him just a .275 average last season, he goes from 145 hits (42nd) to 163 hits (21st). If he would've hit .297—his career average—he would jump to 176 hits and be among the league leaders.
MLB Home Run Leader
Favorite Pick: Yordan Alvarez (0.5u) +1000
Aaron Judge rightfully stole all of the headlines last season, but Yordan Alvarez was quietly right behind him in terms of most power numbers and metrics. The only difference being Yordan played just 135 games and had only 470 ABs. If he can log a full season, it is not hard to see the jump from 37 HRs (6th most) to 45 or even 50 this year. Judge is currently projected for about 43, depending on your model of choice, leaving plenty of room for Yordan to make the leap and finish on top in 2023.
Dart Throw: Ronald Acuña (0.1u) +4000
Much like Alvarez, the only thing standing between Ronald Acuna and an MVP caliber season is health. He is one of the most talented pure hitters in baseball, and he has shown elite power in the past (he hit 41 HRs in 2019; the only time he's ever logged 600+ ABs). If his leg is fully healthy from the start, batting leadoff for an elite offense in a great park could lead to some monster numbers. He is one of the few true 40/40 threats in MLB, so I love getting him at +4000 for the HR crown (20th best odds).
Dart Throw: Oneil Cruz (0.1u) +12500
The closest thing to a superhero playing baseball, the 6'7" Pittsburgh shortstop rounds out my HR dart throws. Oneil Cruz has already done some unreal things since his '22 call-up: he owns the hardest hit ball in the history of the statcast era, and he also owns the hardest infield throw ever recorded. He is an athletic freak whose biggest flaw was his large amount of strikeouts to begin his career. Well, something may have clicked in September, as his K-rate dropped below 30%, and he hit .288 with 6 HRs to finish his last month. If he can make that much contact starting in April and play a full season, 40 HRs seems incredibly within reach (with the potential for a lot more, given how hard he impacts a baseball).
MLB Runs Leader
Favorite Pick: Trea Turner (0.5u) +1400
The new Phillies leadoff hitter is the odds-on favorite to win the MLB Hits crown, so it was surprising to see him sitting down at +1400 (7th) for the Runs title. The ballpark change is a mostly neutral one, the lineup is a downgrade in theory (though maybe not), and batting 1st instead of 3rd should result in a nice bump to his overall volume. If he can continue to get on base at a .355 clip and steal another 30+ bases, he will jog home all summer long with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto and Nick Castellanos waiting behind him.
Dart Throw: Brandon Nimmo (0.1u) +4000
The Mets lineup is great again, and Nimmo gets to camp at the top of it, barring injury or a massive unforeseen slump. He scored 102 runs last season (6th most), which placed him ahead of Trea Turner, Manny Machado, and tons of other big names who are known for their counting stats. If he can replicate his production, get some extra chances via the shift ban, and Marte & Lindor can lock in and produce—a lot If's, yes, hence the price—there is a clear path to him finishing at the top of the Runs leaderboard.
Dart Throw: Tommy Edman (0.1u) +8000
Much like Nimmo, this is a value play banking on a good lineup being even better (seriously, the Cards offense is going to be loaded), and the leadoff hitter seeing continued success and then some thanks to the shift ban. Edman scored 95 runs in '22 (14th most, tied with Yordan Alvarez & Pete Alonso), and he is also a prime candidate to see a bump in his steals thanks to the new rules and larger bases. All of that plus some extra thump coming to the Cards lineup (Contreras should bat 2nd, Nootbaar in there from day 1, and Jordan Walker sooner than you think) has Tommy Edman's stock on the rise.
