DR FTW in the WBC
Groundhogs poking their heads out and seeing shadows is cool and all, but every few years the absolute best sign of spring is the World Baseball Classic. A 6-year delay thanks to the pandemic couldn't keep interests down, and the best global baseball tournament is back and more star-studded than ever.
After some long debate, I decided I will be eating the chalk with my main pick, while also sprinkling in some fun gameday bets throughout the duration of the WBC (March 8th through March 21st). So keep an eye on my Twitter to play along!
WBC Champs: Dominican Republic (1u) +220 on FanDuel
Additional Optional Parlay: DR, USA & Japan to all win their pools, +185 on FanDuel
There are 3 huge favorites based on roster construction, and the odds very much agree with this. The Domincan Republic, the United States, and Japan are all loaded with talent across the board and any of them could take the tourney. I will also mention: don't sleep on Puerto Rico or Venezuela (my favorite dart throw if I were to make one). There is some upset potential staring at the DR in arguably the toughest opening pool, but their talent should still win out in the end.
A lot of people love Japan's shot at taking home their 3rd title in 5 tournaments, and they certainly have the starting pitching to do so (easily the best overall rotation in the field). But, their lineup just isn't deep enough vs. the absurd murderer's row that both the US and DR are bringing to the party. Their odds are basically in line with the other two, providing no value to make up for the talent gap. So, I am out on Japan.
It's not quite Rocky vs. Apollo, and it's definitely not Rocky vs. Drago, so let's go another route: the Avengers vs the Guardians of the Galaxy...or something like that. (There were originally supposed to be 3 Guardians on the DR roster, so it kind of works.) The gist of it is: I really hope the WBC final is the 2 powerhouse teams wearing Red, White, and Blue from the United States and the Dominican Republic—and I think it will be.
Offenses: After looking at both lineups, you can see why either team could casually drop 10 runs on anyone and coast to a victory on any given day. I won't spend too much time on the offensive side of things, but these lineups are insane. Imagine having such a loaded infield that Rafael Devers or Pete Alonso is on your bench, or that guys like Kyle Schwarber and Eloy Jimenez can't crack your starting outfield. Unfortunately for everyone else in the tournament, those guys will still get to do damage via the DH spot when they are not out in the field.
So, it really comes down to pitching as the deciding factor. The DR has a better rotation and a much better bullpen, giving them a pretty massive advantage once you look past the stacked offenses.
Starting Rotations: The loss of Nestor Cortes hurts, giving the US a rotation of Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Merrill Kelly, Kyle Freeland, and possibly Clayton Kershaw (though he's being tabbed as more of a situational-use arm). Conversely, the Dominican has NL Cy Young stud Sandy Alcantara leading the charge, along with ace-in-the-making Cristian Javier, Roansy Contreras and Johnny Cueto.
Bullpens: Despite having a solid edge in starting pitching, the larger gap between these 2 squads—and, well, all other teams vs. the Dominicans—is the relievers. While the US has Ryan Pressly, the DR has all of his filthy setup teammates and then some. There is no other truly elite arm in the American bullpen besides Devin Williams, while the depth in the Dominican pen is downright scary. There are literally 7 or 8 guys who have the stuff to shut down a rally when called upon, and no other team is even remotely close.
So, despite the incredibly talented and deep lineup, and the headlines they bring, it is the bullpen that has me convinced the Dominican Republic will come away with the hardware in 2023.
Quisqueyanos Valientes.
