MLB Betting Preview: March 27th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for Home Runs: BOS vs. TEX, SFG vs. CIN, ATH vs. SEA, DET vs. LAD, BAL vs. TOR
Early HR targets: Willy Adames (SFG), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Vlad Guerrero (TOR), Corey Seager (TEX), Francisco Lindor (NYM)
Pitchers I like: Paul Skenes (PIT), Chris Sale (ATL), Michael King (ATL), Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
Pitchers I would fade: Jose Berrios (TOR), Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)
Implied Runs
Implied run totals are a great first data point to identify pitchers to fade (vs. high run totals) or pitchers to back for Ks (vs. low run totals). They're also an easy way to find offensive spots to target for hitter props such as Home Runs and Total Bases. Here's tomorrow's in order—for now, they move all day—from highest to lowest:
ARI 4.88, NYY 4.86, LAA 4.86, BAL 4.55, CHC 4.53, HOU 4.52, PHI 4.41, SEA 4.41, TOR 4.35, KCR 4.24, CIN 4.23, SFG 4.15, BOS 4.06, TEX 4.04, LAD 4.02, ATL 3.96, MIN 3.93, STL 3.93, NYM 3.81, PIT 3.65, CLE 3.57, MIL 3.48, CWS 3.48, SDP 3.33, WAS 2.89, ATH 2.89, MIA 2.83, DET 2.75
No teams being north of 5 implied runs can happen a lot in the early weeks, and it's also a red flag to not go too aggressive with the hitter props.
First look at Hitter Props:
From a raw park factor standpoint, Globe Life in Texas and our old reliable GABP in Cincinnati (I will bet Cincy home games A LOT again for HRs this year as it warms up) look like the best for Home Runs followed by T-Mobile in Seattle. Remember that the ball has more trouble leaving the yard in the early weeks of the season, so keep the Home Run props to a minimum until the weather heats up. I personally rarely go above 0.1u and treat them as fun side bets and lottos as opposed to realistic bankroll builders.
For other hitter props (Total Bases, HRR aka Hits+Runs+RBI, etc.) Chase Field in Arizona looks great as long as the roof is open—and I expect it to be with temps in the 80s. The massive outfield real estate in KC also always lends itself to more hits despite suppressing HRs in general. Nationals Park is a solid 3rd option on this slate.
I do not put a ton of stock into Batter vs. Pitcher, as I treat it as just another additional data point to paint a broader picture, BUT here are some that look great:
Josh Bell (WAS) has faced Wheeler 49 times: .304 Avg, 3 HRs
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) has faced Berrios 35 times: .323 Avg, 2 HRs
Alex Bregman (BOS) has faced Nathan Eovaldi 32 times: .345 Avg, 2 HRs
Adley Rutschman (BAL) vs. Berrios: 3 HRs in 24 PAs
Trevor Larnach (MIN) vs. Gray: 2 HRs in 3 PAs
Pasquantino & Massey (KC teammates) vs. Bibee: 2 HRs in 8 PAs each
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. Obviously, the best hitters will play in their team’s opener but after that you just never know when a guy will take a day off. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
*3/26 Update: a lot of lines have been live since yesterday morning, so some of the value is already gone. This will not happen on most nights moving forward.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) has dominated the Athletics in his career, including their best power bats: Rooker/Langeliers/Brown are hitting a combined .077 with a 40.3% K-rate, just filthy. The entire A's roster as a whole vs. Gilbert: .103 Avg, 34.5% K-rate. He's also pitching in an elite pitcher's park for his team's home opener, offering an early K ladder opportunity. Luis Severino (ATH) on the other side is also a sneaky play if his line opens low enough, with him facing a strikeout prone team in the same great park for pitching.
You never know what kind of length the Dodgers will give Blake Snell (LAD) to start the season, but the Tigers lineup is full of K targets and inexperienced hitters—most of which have never even faced him.
Hunter Greene (CIN) has shown improved velocity and better overall stuff this spring. A weak Giants lineup before GABP heats up for HRs sets him up for a lot of projected K success in his home opener.
We will see if this trend continues, but with a lot of the same projected lineup, it has to be mentioned: the Brewers strikeout a lot vs. lefties. Carlos Rodon (NYY) has looked sharp and is fully stretched out to start the season. I like his Alt line of 5+ and may take his main once I see the MIL lineup.
Clay Holmes (NYM) has an entirely new arsenal now that he is a starter, and he's looked elite this spring (always take that with a grain of salt though). He is a fun 3.5/4.5 prop combo to take (80% on 3.5, 20% on 4.5 at +Money).
I absolutely love Cole Ragans (KC) but I can't justify taking either side of his props in a start against the Guardians. They've been extremely stingy at allowing Ks over the last 2+ years and you never know what kind of length the Royals will let Ragans have in start number one.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) is in play every time he takes the mound. The Rangers are a tough lineup, but his stuff is absurd and they may not have Seager or Jung. He has a K ceiling of 10+ vs. TEX, but I will likely sit this first one out—but I do love his Alt K line for DFS lineups and promos. He is winning the A.L. Cy Young if he somehow makes it the entire season without any major limitations or injuries. On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) is facing plenty of generous K targets and he is always at his best early in the season when his velocity is still up.
Tarik Skubal (DET) is also always in play every time he takes the mound, but the Dodgers crush LHP in general. I am also concerned about workload in his first start and am likely out. He is another solid Alt Ks pick though.
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. the Marlins: yes, it makes a lot of sense and it was nice to see the books offer a nicely priced 6.5 to start (I honestly expected 7.5 despite potential pitch count limitations in his season debut). You can always ladder someone with his stuff, but the top of this Miami lineup sneakily has some legit contact bats. I already locked in o6.5 at -120 (join my Discord to beat the line movement with me!)
Both Chris Sale (ATL) and Michael King (SDP) have elite stuff for an ace showdown in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. I already locked in a parlay when both were sitting at 4.5 for their main lines, and as expected both are now at 5.5. Another nice +CLV spot ready to cash!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
