MLB Betting Preview: March 28th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CHC vs. ARI, BOS vs. TEX, PIT vs. MIA, COL vs. TBR
Best parks for Home Runs: BOS vs. TEX, NYM vs. HOU, DET vs. LAD, BAL vs. TOR
Early HR targets: Corey Seager (TEX), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Brandon Lowe (TBR), Triston Casas (BOS)
Pitchers I like: Dylan Cease (SDP), Jack Leiter (TEX), Ryan Pepiot (TBR)
Pitchers I would fade: Kevin Gausman (TOR), Luis Castillo (SEA)
Implied Runs
Implied run totals are a great first data point to identify pitchers to fade (vs. high run totals) or pitchers to back for Ks (vs. low run totals). They're also an easy way to find offensive spots to target for hitter props such as Home Runs and Total Bases. Here's tomorrow's in order—for now, they move all day—from highest to lowest:
TBR 5.38, COL 5.04, BOS 5.0, ARI 4.88, TOR 4.80, LAD 4.70, HOU 4.69, TEX 4.60, CHC 4.52, BAL 4.45, PIT 4.40, DET 4.40, NYM 4.36, SEA 4.25, SDP 4.16, MIA 4.09, ATH 3.95, ATL 3.84
First game action in the Rays new park, which has identical dimensions to Yankee Stadium but with some added Florida heat and humidity. It’s a sneaky spot for HRs and offense in general until the books respect it more (the total is 8.0 for game 1).
First look at Hitter Props:
The second day of the season is always a light one, with a lot of outdoor teams leaving it open in case they have a rain out from the day before. There are only 9 games on the slate, but we do have one total of 9.0 for the Red Sox vs. the Rangers. That’s also the top spot for HRs right now from a park factor stand point (I may have my first HR parlay of the year tomorrow!).
I do not put a ton of stock into Batter vs. Pitcher, as I treat it as just another additional data point to paint a broader picture, BUT here are some that look great:
Luis Arraez (SDP) has faced Lopez 26 times: .423 Avg, just 1 K & 0 BBs
Justin Turner (CHC) is not expected to start, but if he does, he has faced Kelly 27 times: .385 Avg
Ha-Seong Kim (TBR) has faced Freeland 25 times: .381 Avg, 1 HR
Freddie Freeman (LAD) has faced Flaherty 20 times: .368 Avg, 1 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) has faced Gausman 20 times: .316 Avg, and now their LF fence was moved in
Christopher Morel (TBR) has 2 HRs in 6 PAs vs. Freeland
Adolis Garcia (TEX) has 2 HRs in 9 PAs vs. Houck
Michael Busch (CHC) is batting 1.000 in 2 PAs including 1 HR vs. Kelly
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. Obviously, the best hitters will play in their team’s opener but after that you just never know when a guy will take a day off. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Dylan Cease (SDP) is almost always in play, and if his new changeup is for real, he will make a strong push for N.L. Cy Young. The Braves have hit him hard but also K'd quite a bit. Plus, a rookie catcher—likely in the 9-hole—feels like a couple of free ones for Cease.
I am a huge fan of Ryan Pepiot's (TBR) stuff and he gets the Rockies in his team's home opener. I am concerned about the ball flying in the new Rays home, but this is a spot where he should miss enough bats to succeed. I was hoping for a 5.5, and if we somehow see one by morning, I will likely grab it. Love his Alt Ks on DFS sites.
Jack Leiter (TEX) is my dark horse tomorrow. I am hoping for a 4.5 line and may sprinkle on 5.5 too. He has added pitches to his arsenal and his 4-seamer is legitimately one of the best in MLB in terms of velo/shape/extension. The problem—and it’s a big one—is his command is unpredictable. If he somehow locks in, the Ks could really pile up vs. the free swinging Sox.
Unlike yesterday where a ton of aces were on the mound, today is a lot less interesting from a K Prop standpoint. I would caution people to get too excited for Jack Flaherty (tough matchup), Kevin Gausman (tough matchup, inconsistent stuff), Luis Castillo (has looked bad, perhaps declining in skills after 1200+ innings at 32 years old), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (DET has been a mixed bag vs. RHP, plus workload concerns depending on the state of the Dodger pen).
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
