MLB Betting Preview: March 29th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CLE vs. KC, SF vs. CIN, CHC vs. ARI, PHI vs. WAS, MIL vs. NYY
Best parks for home runs: SF vs. CIN & MIL vs. NYY look excellent! Also COL vs. TB
Early HR targets: Yordan Alvarez & Christian Walker (HOU), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Lefties for both COL & TB, and also lefties for ATL
Pitchers I like: Max Fried (NYY), Bryce Miller (SEA)
Pitchers I would fade: Max Scherzer (TOR), Jake Irvin (WAS), Randy Vasquez (SDP)
One of the first things that stood out to me on this slate is that both GABP (SF vs. CIN) and Yankee Stadium (MIL vs. NYY) are very primed for home runs: +25% above average and +26%. That’s a rare sight this early in the season, and I will be leaning into it with my first HR parlay of the year. With 2 lefties on the bump in the Bronx, I am going to focus on SF vs. CIN and likely grab a bat from each side (or possibly just 2 Reds vs. Verlander). I still love one-off pieces in MIL vs. NYY as well, especially with Cortes being such a flyball heavy pitcher. My not-so-bold-call: Aaron Judge’s first HR happens in this spot and Cortes’s revenge game blows up in his face.
First look at Hitter Props:
Starting things off with a matchup I attacked with a ton of success last season: Randy Vasquez (SD) cannot get lefties out, and he gives up a lot of loud contact to them. This makes me love a lot of Braves bats: Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Jurickson Profar and maybe even a sprinkle on a Drake Baldwin’s 1st career home run. You can take any of these guys for Total Bases, HRR, or toss 0.1u on some HRs.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Vlad Guerrero (TOR) vs. Kremer: 30 PAs, .357 Avg, 5 HRs
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Griffin Canning: .539 Avg, 2 HRs in 16 PAs
Christian Walker (HOU) vs. Griffin Canning: .500 Avg, 2 HRs in just 9 PAs
Lawrence Butler (ATH) vs. Bryce Miller: a perfect 4-for-4 with a HR so far
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. Obviously, the best hitters will play in their team’s opener but after that you just never know when a guy will take a day off. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Another day, another LHP against the Brewers. Rodon got it done, and Max Fried (NYY) projects well too—despite the Bronx looking like a bit of a launch pad weather-wise (he’s more of a groundball pitcher and also negates lefty power for the short porch better than most). Guessing we see a 5.5, so it will all come down opening price/juice.
I am pumped to see Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) pitch again after an electric rookie year. Apparently, the Braves just churn out elite Spencers to pitch for them. He has a legit 6-pitch arsenal and elite control, but this is also a tough K matchup on paper that gives me pause. I am likely sitting it out for his ‘25 debut.
Bryce Miller (SEA) should pitch well at home against the Athletics, which has been a steady theme in their opening series and pretty much all of last year: M’s pitchers dominate at home. He also likely sees an opening line of 5.5, and I would probably take it if it’s not juiced beyond -140.
I am mostly out on everyone else, including Joe Ryan (MIN) who I love (he has major velo concerns right now, so I need to see that he is all the way there before financially backing him). I am also concerned about the tough K matchup for Jesus Luzardo (PHI), though I do like him to get a Win. There’s also some future hall of famers with big names that may tempt you, but I am definitely out on Justin Verlander (SF) and Max Scherzer (TOR). If they pitch well, it’s great for the game, but I don’t see it happening very often this year.
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
