MLB Betting Preview: March 30th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: PHI vs. WAS, SF vs. CIN, CHC vs. ARI
Best parks for home runs: LAA vs. CWS, COL vs. TB
Early HR targets: Marcell Ozuna (ATL), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Bryce Harper (PHI)
Pitchers I like: Robbie Ray (SF), Bryan Woo (SEA), Jacob deGrom (TEX)
Pitchers I would fade: Ryan Feltner (COL), Davis Martin (CWS)
There are 2 solid home run spots (listed above) with all 4 pitchers being susceptible to blow ups and a lot of hard contact. Taj Bradley is the only one who could have an elite outing, but the Angels, White Sox, Rays and Rockies are all in great park setups for some bombs. Outside of that, I am excited to see how Robbie Ray looks in his debut. He is now armed with a Tarik Skubal changeup to mitigate righties, and he was already nasty to lefties with his slider. I will likely play his strikeout line no matter what it opens at (hoping for a 5.5; would play a +money 6.5).
First look at Hitter Props:
There are no elite offensive setups, but I could see the Phillies or the Rays really opening things up against some subpar starters and taxed bullpens. Spacious Kauffman stadium (CLE vs. KC) looks like a deadzone for HRs and offense in general, so the Under looks nice with 2 solid SPs on the mound. We always play Sundays light, so that is all.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. Pivetta: 30 PAs, .897 Slg, 6 HRs
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) vs. Tanner Bibee: .750 Avg, 2 HRs in just 8 PAs
Orlando Arcia (ATL) vs. Pivetta: .667 Avg, 2 HRs in just 10 PAs
Ryan O’Hearn (BAL) vs. Bassitt: .455 Avg, 1 HR in 12 PAs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
It’s Robbie Ray (SF) season in Cincinnati, with all of the Reds’ best contact bats being much better vs. RHP (Ray is a lefty). He texted Tarik Skubal in the offseason about adding a changeup to his arsenal, as they are both southpaws with similar deliveries. Skubal sent back a lot of advice and photos, and the rest is history. Ray was absolutely dealing this spring, and the sky is the limit with a fully repaired arm ready to roll. I am hoping for a 5.5 opening line, but I would play a 6.5 at the right price.
Speaking of fully repaired arms, Jacob deGrom (TEX) is getting his debut moved up due to the rotation being beat up by injuries already. This is the best pitcher of the last decade+ when healthy, and he should eat most of the Red Sox alive with his elite 4-seamer and wipeout slider. He won’t go past the 5th inning very often, but he can easily go for 6, 7, even 10 Ks in any start. Also, keep an eye on Richard Fitts (BOS) on the other side of this game. He has increased velocity and has looked sharp. This is not a matchup to put money on him, but I anticipate taking his K props often this season.
Both JP Sears (ATH) and Bryan Woo (SEA) are in play, especially if we get some bench bats on a late Sunday night. It’s a wait-and-see spot, but both have great matchups in one of the very best pitcher parks in MLB.
Sundays are weird in general, and I always play them light. With that said, if multiple backups get their first action in any game, it presents a great opportunity to snipe some K lines before the books adjust and bump them. I will always share mine as I take them on Twitter (or X or whatever you prefer to call it). I say this factually—not trying to brag—nobody reads lineups on the fly faster and identifies spots to take better.
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
