MLB Betting Preview: March 31st, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: BOS vs. BAL, PIT vs. TB, COL vs. PHI, TEX vs. CIN
Best parks for home runs: COL vs. PHI, PIT vs. TB, BOS vs. BAL, TEX vs. CIN
Early HR targets: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Jordan Westburg (BAL), Corey Seager (TEX)
Pitchers I like: Cristopher Sanchez (PHI), David Peterson (NYM), Drew Rasmussen (TB), Jackson Jobe (DET)
Pitchers I would fade: German Marquez (COL), Sean Newcomb (BOS), Joey Estes (ATH)
There’s very clearly 4 spots that project the best for offense, just from a park factor standpoint. There are also some very unproven pitchers in each of those games, outside of Sanchez (PHI), Rasmussen (TB), and Singer (CIN). Great setups for some home run or other hitter props!
First look at Hitter Props:
The combination of an elite offensive environment and a bad SP and pen makes the Phillies bats look great. You could grab any of them for Total Bases, HRR, Home Runs, etc. You could even sprinkle on a Home Run parlay with the old reliables (Schwarber and Harper). Though less of a projected HR spot, the Red Sox vs. Orioles looks primed for a ton of offense as well, so grab your favorites and fire away. I am especially drawn to righties against Newcomb: Westburg, Mountcastle, and also Rutschman who obviously bats from the right side vs. LHP.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Carlos Correa (MIN) vs. Perez: 37 PAs, .333 Avg, 3 HRs
JT Realmuto (PHI) vs. Marquez: 22 PAs, .353 Avg
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Marquez: 17 PAs, .429 Avg, 2 HRs
Alec Bohm (PHI) vs. Marquez: .625 Avg, 1 HR in just 8 PAs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
The Rockies had a 27.3% team K-rate vs. LHP last year (2nd in MLB) with mostly the same lineup that they have now—in fact, it’s arguably worse this season—which sets up Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) and his increased velocity for a great season debut. Colorado has seen nothing but right-handed starters so far, so he should really catch them off guard.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) always has workload concerns, but he’s looked fully healthy with great stuff. If we get a 4.5 line vs. the free-swinging Pirates, I am in.
Starting pitchers in Seattle consistently outperform their typical numbers, so I am very intrigued in backing Jackson Jobe (DET) who is technically still a rookie. He sits around 100 MPH with his 4-seamer and has multiple breakers and offspeed action with insane spin rates that should pile up whiffs. We likely see a juiced 4.5—maybe even a 5.5—but if the price is right I am probably taking it.
There are quite a few mediocre SPs I expect to have a tough go, in no particular order: German Marquez (COL), Sean Newcomb (BOS), Joey Estes (ATH), Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT). I will likely fade Estes and take his Under if we get a nicely priced 4.5. The others I am mostly just targeting for hitter props.
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
