MLB Betting Preview: April 1st, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: PIT vs. TB, ATL vs. LAD, TEX vs. CIN
Best parks for home runs: PIT vs. TB, TEX vs. CIN, KC vs. MIL, ATL vs. LAD
Early HR targets: Corey Seager (TEX), Choose-your-Royal vs. Chad Patrick, if the Rays face a righty I love Jonathan Aranda & Brandon Lowe, if they face a lefty I love Junior Caminero
Pitchers I like: Logan Gilbert (SEA), Justin Steele (CHC), Nathan Eovaldi (TEX), Casey Mize (DET)
Pitchers I would fade: Carson Spiers (CIN), Chad Patrick (MIL), Trevor Williams (WAS)
A much tamer projected offensive slate from a park factor standpoint than yesterday, with the Rays looking to be in a great spot in their new home. They are playing in a literal clone of Yankee Stadium in Florida heat/humidity, but maybe they need more torpedo bats in the lineup to really pop off. The Pirates are still unsure of who will even start the game, and their bullpen is a disaster right now. Look for at least 1 or 2 Rays to have a great day at the plate.
The Reds absolutely smoked the Rangers on Monday, and I expect they return the favor against Carson Spiers. Corey Seager should go off as should multiple other Rangers.
In a major surprise, Bartolo Colon is making his return to the diamond. The Twins desperately need a spark and think his winning attitude is just the ticket. Quite the bold move, but also: this is an April Fool’s joke, and I felt obligated to include one. Onto Hitter Props!…
First look at Hitter Props:
The Royals play their home games in a spacious park, which allows for a lot of hits and runs but not a ton of home runs. I like them to pop a couple playing in Milwaukee vs. a terrible starter where the dimensions are noticeably smaller.
After getting absolutely beat down on Monday, I think the Rangers bounce back in a loud way: all of their top hitters are in play for bases or HR props in the always HR-friendly Great American Small Park.
I love the combination of weather, ballpark and opposing pitching for the Rays. While he’s still healthy and staring at that short porch, Josh Lowe should continue to do well. My bold call on this slate: Jonathan Aranda hits his first HR of the season against whoever the Pirates throw at him (as long as they don’t somehow rollout a lefty, as he could be on the bench).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Alcantara: 44 PAs & only 6 BBs, .290 Avg & 2 HRs
Jorge Polanco (SEA) vs. Mize: 14 PAs, .357 Avg & 2 HRs
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. May: 6 PAs, .600 Avg & 1 HR
Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Sale: 13 PAs & only 1 K, .333 Avg
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
If the books actually give us a line for Chad Patrick (MIL), I think we have to fade him. The Royals are too great of a combo of contact and power vs. fastballs, and Patrick throws variations of heaters 80% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) gets to draw a start at home in an elite pitcher’s park against a lot of young Tigers. This will mostly likely be a 6.5 line, with the DET lineup being a major factor in playing it or not. Any sort of bench bats or surprises, and I would likely be all in. On the other side Casey Mize (DET) is also in play—I’d love a nicely priced 4.5—as he’s looked great (1.89 ERA and 11.84 K/9 across 19 spring innings) and has a tough 4-seam/splitter combo for hitting in Seattle.
This one is lineup dependent for K Props, but I expect Justin Steele (CHC) to bounce back in a big way in his easiest matchup to date.
I love Dustin May (LAD) in the long run as an overlooked legit SP in the betting markets, but a debut against the Braves is not the place to start.
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