MLB Betting Preview: April 2nd, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: TEX vs. CIN, ATL vs. LAD, LAA vs. STL (rain risk in STL)
Best parks for home runs: TEX vs. CIN, ATL vs. LAD, MIN vs. CWS (rain risk in CWS)
Early HR targets: Matt McLain (CIN), Francisco Lindor (NYM), Corey Seager (TEX)
Pitchers I like: Tarik Skubal (DET), Zack Wheeler (COL), Cole Ragans (KC), Ryan Pepiot (TB)
Pitchers I would fade: Zac Gallen (ARI), Bryce Elder (ATL), Connor Gillispie (NYM)
It’s still early enough in the season that a lot of pitchers are on the same schedules, so tomorrow is officially: The Aces Part Deux! Skubal in a legit max ladder spot, Wheeler, Skenes, Crochet, Cease, Pablo, Ragans, Snell, Greene, Framber… my goodness. That takes a lot of nice hitter matchups off the map, but I do love the Reds against Jack Leiter for some bombs (and also the Rangers on the other side too). Leiter will get some Ks and inevitably give up some HRs with his upper zone 4-seamer. He is basically Joe Ryan with more velocity and less control. Also, the Dodgers are going to destroy Bryce Elder (most likely).
First look at Hitter Props:
There are 2 pretty obvious offensive targets with so many aces on the bump: Reds & Rangers, and Dodgers & Braves. Mostly just Reds & Dodgers, as I think Hunter Greene has taken a legit step forward and is no longer a flame thrower who also gives up hard contact. He’s looking like the real deal! And then you have Blake Snell, who typically starts slow, but I could see him shutting down ATL.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Mike Trout (LAA) vs. Gray: 39 PAs, .270 Avg & 4 HRs
Steven Kwan (CLE) vs. Cease: 24 PAs, .318 Avg & only 2 Ks
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Eflin: 16 PAs, .375 Avg & 2 HRs
Nick Castellanos (PHI) vs. Freeland: 3 HRs in just 15 PAs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Tarik Skubal (DET) had to start his Cy Young defending season against the Dodgers on the road. He now gets the Mariners in Seattle—arguably the most complete opposite matchup possible. Let’s see what opening line we get, but: 7.5, 8.5, don’t care, I am probably playing it.
I love Ryan Pepiot (TB) to keep the momentum rolling, as he gets another nice matchup against the Pirates. He’s a great Alt K grab for DFS and potentially for his main prop line as well.
There’s so many other elite SPs going, that some will be lineup dependent, but I may have 4 or 5 K Props tomorrow. I love everything I have seen from Hunter Greene (CIN), Pablo Lopez (MIN) has a cake matchup, as does Paul Skenes (PIT), and Garrett Crochet (BOS) is always in play. Alt Ks for days for your DFS slips tomorrow!
One kid to keep an eye on though that is not an ace: Landen Roupp (SF) against Houston. His velo is up, his stuff looked super legit in spring, and he has multiple ways to succeed. Could be a household name in the coming couple of years.
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
