MLB Betting Preview: April 3rd, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: BOS vs. BAL, COL vs. PHI, ARI vs. NYY
Best parks for home runs: ARI vs. NYY & COL vs. PHI
Early HR targets: Michael Toglia (COL), Austin Wells (NYY), Ketel Marte (ARI), Bryce Harper (PHI)
Pitchers I like: Hunter Brown (HOU), Joe Ryan (MIN)
Pitchers I would fade: Taijuan Walker (PHI), Nestor Cortes (MIL), Antonio Senzatela (COL)
A very rare and very small 5-game slate for Thursday, with a lot of teams leaving this date open in case of earlier rainouts. There are 3 clear offensive standouts as mentioned above, with the park factors in New York and Philly looking especially juicy for some home run action. I don’t say this often when they are on the road, but I love the Rockies to tee off against Taijuan Walker. As for the DBacks and Yankees: every single lefty in the Bronx is in play—whether they use a torpedo bat or not. My bold HR call of the slate: Michael Toglia destroys a Walker offering and deposits it way up in the RF seats.
First look at Hitter Props:
I’ve already highlighted the ARI vs. NYY and COL vs. PHI games, so let’s not forget about BOS vs. BAL. That game is full of great hitters on both sides, and it is the best overall run scoring environment just from a park factor standpoint. The CIN vs. MIL has some appeal as well, but then the HOU vs. MIN game is feeling like an offensive dead zone. Two great SPs going with temps below 40º in Minneapolis should really negate a lot of hard hits and keep most of them in the park.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Kris Bryant (COL) vs. Walker: 15 PAs, .417 Avg & 1 HR
Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Senzatela: 2 HRs in just 15 PAs
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Morton: 39 PAs is a lot, slump bust coming?
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Ryan: 14 PAs, .333 Avg & 3 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Both Hunter Brown (HOU) and Joe Ryan (MIN) looked like themselves in their debuts, and they will benefit from some cold weather in this SP showdown. Given how bad the Twins bats have been, Brown may open at 6.5, and I would be very interested in a nicely priced 5.5 if we somehow get it. For Ryan, the matchup is much tougher but he’s the better whiff generator, so he likely sees a similar line. I am going to be out on him unless we get a surprise lineup (ie: if Yordan sits for whatever reason after traveling, that bumps Ryan’s K line by a full strikeout+).
The Brewers continue to whiff a ton vs. LHP, so Nick Lodolo (CIN) is worth a long look (pending the lineup he gets). Christian Yelich gifted Cole Ragans with a day off on Wednesday, so the MIL bats will likely be at full strength with their usual starting nine against Lodolo.
Beyond that, there are plenty of potential fades to consider. I will almost certainly wait for lineups to be posted for all of them. Some strictly gut feeling leans include: Carlos Carrasco (NYY) u4.5, Taijuan Walker (PHI) u4.5, Antonio Senzatela (COL) u3.5.
With such a small slate on tap, that is all until tomorrow!
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