MLB Betting Preview: April 4th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: ATH vs. COL, STL vs. BOS
Best parks for home runs: CIN vs. MIL, TB vs. TEX
Early HR targets: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN), Brandon Lowe (TB), Brent Rooker (ATH)
Pitchers I like: Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL), Jack Flaherty (DET)
Pitchers I would fade: Jake Irvin (WAS), Erick Fedde (STL), Osvaldo Bido (ATH), Ryan Feltner (COL)
Our first Coors series of the season! The weather doesn’t look great for HRs, as is often the case in early April, but the giant outfield is ripe for extra base hits (like it always is). If you are new to betting on MLB hitter props, just know that in general: Coors = bet the Overs on anyone you like!
Speaking of offense and extra base hits, Fenway’s green monster offers plenty of both too. Those 2 spots and spacious Kauffman Stadium (in KC) project to be the best offensive setups on this slate. There are zero elite home run park factor setups, so I would not go crazy with the HR bets.
First look at Hitter Props:
Anyone looking to bet on some Total Bases, HRR, etc. will want to look to Colorado and Boston first. There are multiple pitcher-friendly setups on this slate, giving both of these spots a nice offensive edge against the rest of the parks in play. I still cannot emphasize enough how much offense plays up in Coors (COL). All of the highest totals of the entire season will come in Rockies’ home games, with some even touching 12.5+.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Gausman: 27 PAs, .533 Avg & 1 HR
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) vs. Fried: 21 PAs, .300 Avg & only 4 BB+Ks
Jordan Westburg (BAL) vs. Lugo: 1 HR in just 5 PAs, .500 Avg
Kerry Carpenter (DET) vs. Cannon: 1 HR in just 6 PAs, .600 Avg
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
I am a huge Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) fan in general. He’s about to be considered an ace and one of the best to do it for this season, and a date with the Marlins will only further jumpstart that. An insane 6-pitch mix with elite command and multiple whiff pitches, just dirty. I would love a 5.5 opening line but would likely play a 6.5 at the right price.
Jack Flaherty (DET) held his own against the Dodgers and now gets to pick on the White Sux™. This is another spot where I would love to see a 5.5, but I don’t think we will be that lucky given how good Jack looked in his season debut.
The Coors effect: fade Osvaldo Bido (ATH) and Ryan Feltner (COL). Typically, teams take a game to fully acclimate to the higher elevation—so the real offensive fireworks are more likely to happen tomorrow—but it’s just not worth the risk with 2 SPs that struggle with command and missing bats. Either team could go nuclear in this spot, and it’s just not worth trying to find out which one.
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