MLB Betting Preview: April 5th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: ATH vs. COL, NYY vs. PIT, MIA vs. ATL
Best parks for home runs: CIN vs. MIL, TB vs. TEX, NYY vs. PIT
Early HR targets: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Matt McLain (CIN), Jazz Chisholm (NYY)
Pitchers I like: Jacob deGrom (TEX), Robbie Ray (SF), Reese Olson (DET)
Pitchers I would fade: Bailey Falter (PIT), Germán Márquez (COL), Roki Sasaki (LAD)
The weather is a bit better in Denver for Saturday, but still not warm enough to hammer the Coors hitter props (something we will do often in the summer months). It’s still the best offensive environment on a slate with a lot of great pitcher setups, so I will likely have some action—especially with the bullpens getting a lot of work on Friday. Also, the Yankees should crush Falter on paper, in the 2nd best offensive spot.
First look at Hitter Props:
German Marquez just does not miss enough bats to survive home games in Coors, so I would take a look at some Athletics first if you’re trying to get some Total Bases or HRR action. Pittsburgh is the only other park setup that comes even remotely close, with a lot of cold weather and solid SPs keeping offense in check across this Saturday slate.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Cedric Mullins (BAL) vs. Wacha: 21 PAs, .400 Avg & 2 HRs
Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Nola: 20 PAs, .350 Avg & 2 HRs
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Wacha: 20 PAs, .412 Avg & 3 HRs
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Ober: 9 PAs, .625 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
The best pitcher of the last decade took a while to find his slider in his first start, but eventually Jacob deGrom (TEX) locked in and was his usual dominant self. He should have his way with a lot of young Rays, especially with how little they’ve seen his elite stuff (Lowe has 3 PAs against him, Jansen has 2 and the rest of the roster has zero). We likely see a juiced up 6.5 to open, and I will consider a ladder in this spot once the TB lineup drops. I don’t care about workload, as deGrom can bag 10+ Ks in only 5 innings anytime out.
I was very excited to see Robbie Ray (SF) and his new changeup, and it was just ok in his ‘25 debut. The rest of his arsenal looked as good as ever though, as he started with 5 no-hit innings in a tough ballpark. For his next turn, he gets both a great matchup and one of the very best pitcher friendly venues, and I think he will cruise in a delayed revenge game of sorts. I again expect to see a 6.5 opening line, and I would hammer a 5.5 if we see one.
Other SPs with both a great matchup and the talent to toss a gem in favorable conditions include: Bryce Miller (SEA), Reese Olson (DET), and Tanner Bibee (CLE).
One SP that I think could be really sneaky here is JP Sears (ATH) pitching in Coors. Over the last year+ we have seen random pitchers pile up Ks despite the elevation, and his arsenal could play up in this spot. He throws a lot of 4-seamers & sweepers, and the Rockies have really struggled against LHP dating back to last season—especially sweepers, despite them breaking less at higher elevation. As a bonus: they have not seen very many sweepers to start their season, and none have come from a lefty starter.
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