MLB Betting Preview: April 6th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: ATH vs. COL, ARI vs. WAS, MIA vs. ATL
Best parks for home runs: CIN vs. MIL, TB vs. TEX, ATH vs. COL
Early HR targets: Michael Toglia (COL), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Corbin Caroll (ARI)
Pitchers I like: Grant Holmes (ATL), Jordan Hicks (SF), Jackson Jobe (DET)
Pitchers I would fade: Bowden Francis (NYM), Carson Spiers (CIN)
Game 3 of a Coors series! Saturday was excellent for the Athletics as expected, and this is another nice spot until the weather warms up in Denver. Park factors are showing a massive bump to extra base hits and runs, and even a slightly positive bump to home runs (unlike the first 2 games). Outside of that: it’s Sunday, and we play Sundays light! It’s the highest variance day of the week by a wide margin with a lot of players resting, teams preparing to travel, etc.
First look at Hitter Props:
I’ll say it again: COORS FIELD. Massive outfield real estate, higher elevation for more carry on batted balls, and less break on all curves, sliders, sweepers, etc. I cashed a Brent Rooker bases ladder Saturday, and there will be plenty of value again in Denver on Sunday.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. Alcantara: 24 PAs, .409 Avg & only 3 Ks
Nolan Arenado (STL) vs. Newcomb: 16 PAs, .467 Avg & 2 HRs
Josh Naylor (ARI) vs. Soroka: 7 PAs, .667 Avg & 1 HR
Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. Anderson: 7 PAs, .500 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
I’ve highlighted a lot of SPs vs. the Marlins early on and for good reason: they’re an elite matchup both in terms of potential strikeouts and for their lack of offensive pop. Grant Holmes (ATL) had to deal with the Dodgers in his season debut, and now gets a polar opposite matchup against MIA on a Sunday. It feels like we may get a 4.5 opening line after his first start, and that is a must-play.
Jackson Jobe (DET) continues to wow from a visual and statcast standpoint, yet the Ks just have not been there yet. That may change against the White Sox, depending on who all they rollout on a Sunday. He has top-tier velo and insane spin rates on his breakers, so it is just a matter of time before the strikeouts inevitably show up. I imagine the books will not give out another 4.5—even though he fell shy in his opener—knowing all too well what the public thinks of the Sox.
This is a fun one to keep an eye on: Jordan Hicks (SF) suddenly has velocity similar to his elite closer days. It was there in the spring and in his first start, as he destroyed the Astros with relentless 98 MPH sinkers. He is more of an outs play in a pitcher-friendly park against a bad team, but I would definitely entertain his Ks again at the right price. He still has a wipeout splitter too, but it just felt like he literally did not need it in his last outing.
Others I have my eye on but will want to see lineups first: Bryan Woo (SEA), Corbin Burnes (ARI), Drew Rasmussen (TEX), Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
