MLB Betting Preview: April 7th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: BAL vs. ARI, STL vs. PIT
Best parks for home runs: SD vs. ATH, HOU vs. SEA, but really none of them
Early HR targets: Any big power bats with +Matchups to offset the terrible park factors: Aaron Judge (NYY), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
Pitchers I like: Dustin May (LAD), Hunter Greene (CIN), Michael King (SD)
Pitchers I would fade: Zach Eflin (BAL), Whoever the Marlins use
This is a gross offensive Monday slate to kick off our week, with every single park setup offering a massively negative Home Run park factor (& all are negative for Runs in general too). That should mean plenty of ways to attack the K Prop side of things, but I would recommend you keep your hitter action in check.
First look at Hitter Props:
There are quite a few aces on the mound across a slate that is 100% pitcher-friendly in every way (just from a raw park factor standpoint). With that said, if I had to choose some hitter spots to target it would start with the Mets against a TBD starter and the Marlins pen.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) vs. Liberatore: 9 PAs, .444 Avg & 1 HR
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Mize: 5 PAs, .800 Avg & 2 XBHs
Riley Greene (DET) vs. Rodon: 6 PAs, .667 Avg & 1 XBH
Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Gore: 6 PAs, .750 Avg & zero Ks
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Dustin May (LAD) looked all the way back from his various injuries and setbacks in his ‘25 debut, and this year’s Nats are whiffing a lot more than the last few years. He has insane movement on his main pitches and could really catch them off guard with how little they’ve faced him (and with how long it’s been since the last time they crossed paths).
There is no reason to not stay on the Hunter Greene (CIN) train while his velo is at its peak. He has truly evolved as a pitcher, knowing when to use his slider and other offspeed offerings. This is another spot where the Giants saw him not that long ago, but he’s been so good and is not even in GABP for this start.
This has been a theme all year, and it has been very successful: SPs against the Marlins. They are a great combination of poor hitting and plenty of whiffs, which sets up Kodai Senga (NYM) for a really nice first start this week.
Aces who are always worth your consideration, but mostly come down to the lineups they get in these matchups: Michael King (SD), Logan Gilbert (SEA) & Sandy Alcantara (MIA).
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
