MLB Betting Preview: April 8th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIL vs. COL, BAL vs. ARI
Best parks for home runs: MIL vs. COL, LAA vs. TB
Early HR targets: Ezequiel Tovar (COL), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Seiya Suzuki (CHC)
Pitchers I like: Cole Ragans (KC), Sonny Gray (STL), Shane Baz (TB)
Pitchers I would fade: Kyle Hendricks (LAA), Patrick Corbin (TEX), Brad Lord (WAS)
Another Coors series kicks off on Tuesday, and it’s head and shoulders above every other spot in terms of projectable offense. Outside of that, we also get another series in Florida’s version of Yankee Stadium where the Angels visit the Rays with the same short porch as the Bronx (but with Florida’s humidity for even more carry on batted balls). It’s also the return of Patrick Corbin to the mound, someone we have targeted for years now—mostly for right-handed bats—but due to his likely short leash, we can’t hammer that quite yet.
On the pitching side, it is literally aces for days… There are no less than 12 SP1s going for their respective teams, meaning matchups will come into play to determine which elite arms are in the best spots.
First look at Hitter Props:
Coors, Coors, Coors. Also, Philly vs. ATL is looking to have sneaky Home Run value that may stay off a lot of radars (could smack a +500 HR or 2 in this spot with the right lineups). Beyond that, any lefty in the Angels vs. Rays is in play to take a ball deep—just like every single home game for the Rays.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Castillo: 18 PAs, .471 Avg & 3 HRs
Ezequiel Tovar (COL) vs. Peralta: 8 PAs, .429 Avg & 2 HRs
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) vs. Corbin: 12 PAs, .400 Avg & 2 HRs
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) vs. Gray: 20 PAs, .316 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
So many aces on the bump, so where do we start? Cole Ragans (KC) looked absolutely elite last time out, and now he gets the free-swinging Twins in a pitcher-friendly park. This is a team he has dominated since joining the Royals: 7 Ks, 8 Ks, 7 Ks, & 9 Ks across 4 starts (plus elite ratios). We likely see a juiced up 6.5 out the gate, and I would be way in on that.
Dylan Cease (SD) has owned the Athletics that have actually faced him, and he should get to pick on at least 2 new faces this time around. Just like Ragans and a lot of other SPs on Tuesday, he also has a great pitcher park setup. Another spot where it is most likely a 6.5 to start, so it will come down to the juice on this one (and also the lineup to a point).
The Mariners cannot hit lefties at all, and that is especially true at home where pitchers always seem to have an additional advantage. So, as long as he is healthy and back at it: Framber Valdez (HOU) should give you 6 or more innings and plenty of Ks. Being more of a volume play, I would prefer to see him at 5.5, but I doubt that happens.
A potential post-hype breakout star in the making—if his velocity stays up—Shane Baz (TB) should miss more than enough bats against the Angels to offset the hitter-friendly setup in Tampa. Due to a lack of track record, I would guess a very playable 5.5 shows up on at least one book.
Sonny Gray (STL) has his velocity and sweeper back, and that is a beautiful thing heading into a matchup with a bunch of high K-rates on the Pirates. A very juicy 5.5 is likely in the Cards (get it? Cards?) and I would be in on that.
Other elite aces who are always someone to consider: Garrett Crochet (BOS), Tarik Skubal (DET), Zack Wheeler (PHI), Paul Skenes (PIT), Chris Sale (ATL).
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
