MLB Betting Preview: April 9th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIL vs. COL, BAL vs. ARI, MIN vs. KC
Best parks for home runs: LAA vs. TB (but really: none)
Early HR targets: Rafael Devers (BOS), Ryan McMahon (COL), Junior Caminero (TB)
Pitchers I like: Tylor Megill (NYM), Ryan Pepiot (TB), Hunter Brown (HOU)
Pitchers I would fade: Taijuan Walker (PHI), Randy Vasquez (SD), Kevin Gausman (TOR)
There are still cold temps all over the country, which sets this up as another slate that heavily favors pitching over hitting. Coors is still an extra base hit paradise—just not as much as normal. With a full day of acclimating to the elevation under their belts, I like the Brewers to potentially really pop off for some runs in this spot. Beyond that, things I am keeping an eye on are mostly for the SPs on the mound: has Brandon Pfaadt figured out a pitch mix for lefties? Is Hunter Brown’s velo still up? Is Ryan Pepiot’s stuff good enough to survive in Yankee Stadium SE? Will Tyler, Tyler or Tylor be the better pitcher this time? What about Max and Max?
First look at Hitter Props:
I would play them light given the weather and park factor setups, but if you are really looking to scratch that itch, it is Coors again. Plain & simple. Don’t overthink it. Some lefties getting a random start for MIL could provide excellent value, and the same could be said for righties for COL.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Gausman: 32 PAs, .300 Avg & 2 HR
Bryan De La Cruz (ATL) vs. Walker: 24 PAs, .391 Avg & 1 HR
Michael Harris (ATL) vs. Walker: 6 PAs, .800 Avg & 2 HRs
Lourdes Gurriel (AR) vs. Kremer: 9 PAs, .375 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
As we get to see SPs for a 2nd—or in a lot of cases a 3rd time—more data and clarity comes out about new skills or new pitches. If a guy is still throwing harder, that is a big deal. If a guy has a new pitch that he actually uses successfully, that is an even bigger deal. If a guy’s stuff is better (ie: more break, better location, etc.), that is another huge point in his favor that the books may not pick up on right away.
The matchup is tough, but I am keeping my eye on the lineup that Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) gets. He appears to finally have a pitch mix to use on lefties, and he is lowkey elite against righties. If the O’s can’t find enough LHHs to throw at him—they are projected to start 6 though—there could be great value on a 5.5 line at the right price.
Grant Holmes (ATL) has had some awful luck so far this season, so we could possibly see a 4.5 line in this spot which feels like a must play. He misses plenty of bats and is actually a very solid SP. You just wouldn’t know it since he faced the Dodgers and then got rained out and majorly delayed.
The pitcher’s paradise in Seattle sets up Hunter Brown (HOU) for another great outing. He still doesn’t really have an elite offspeed putaway pitch, but if he is sitting 97 to 98 MPH again, he should mow down enough M’s in a great pitching environment. By the way, the Luis Castillo (SEA) that he is facing is NOT the one we all know. When you see Castillo with a line of 3.5 or 4.5 or whatever it may be, leave it alone. It’s not the same guy.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) is an auto-fade until further notice. I don’t care if they give him a 4.5 with +Juice, you have to leave him alone until he finds his form. His splitter is the only way he consistently gets Ks, and it is not generating any whiffs this year. The Sox could hammer him in this spot.
This one is a bit lineup dependent—and line dependent—but I love Ryan Pepiot’s (TB) stuff and growth as a pitcher. He could cash a 6.5 at +Money if the Angels give us enough K targets.
Lastly, I will not stop picking on the Marlins until they stop giving us K Prop wins. Tylor Megill (NYM) is an unpredictable pitcher, but has looked great heading into this elite matchup. We likely see a 5.5 to start, and I think you have to take it until the fish show signs of life.
Some pitchers on fade watch, depending on the lines we get: both the SPs in Coors, Taijuan Walker (PHI), Jake Irvin (WAS), & Dean Kremer (BAL).
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