MLB Betting Preview: April 10th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIL vs. COL, MIN vs. KC, LAA vs. TB
Best parks for home runs: MIL vs. COL, LAA vs. TB
Early HR targets: Christian Yelich (MIL), Salvador Perez (KC), Rafael Devers (BOS)
Pitchers I like: Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL), Jesus Luzardo (PHI), Gavin Williams (CLE)
Pitchers I would fade: Walker Buehler (BOS), Ryan Feltner (COL), Quinn Priester (MIL)
A very small 6-game slate to give a lot of teams a breather, but we at least still have a Coors game to look forward to from an offensive standpoint. A couple of mediocre SPs and some tired bullpens has both the Brewers & Rockies looking to run up the score a bit. Outside of that, the Twins & Royals looks promising too.
First look at Hitter Props:
The Brewers & Rockies will likely lead the way in all offensive projections, including implied run totals with the park setup and pitchers going. It’s hard to argue with that, but it is worth mentioning that the Royals have absolutely owned Bailey Ober. The top 5 regulars in their lineup are all hitting .333 or better against him, which could mean a lot of base runners and scoring despite it being hard to hit a home run in KC.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Alex Bregman (BOS) vs. Bassitt: 29 PAs, .385 Avg & 1 HR
Salvador Perez (KC) vs. Ober: 21 PAs, .368 & 2 HRs
Ty France (MIN) vs. Wacha: 20 PAs, .500 Avg & only 2 Ks
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Bassitt: 14 PAs, .300 Avg & 3 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
I can’t really call Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) an ace in the making anymore, as I think he is literally already an ace. He has a massive arsenal, elite control and the ability to miss bats with multiple offerings. The Phillies are obviously a tough matchup, but I like him a lot if we get a 5.5.
The White Sox are a cushy matchup overall, and I think Gavin Williams (CLE) should be able to take advantage of it. I still don’t trust he’s a legit breakout quite yet, but this is the best matchup play on the slate—at least for a potentially low ERA & a chance for a Win. He still needs to find out which non 4-seamers work to support his seriously legit fastball. Guessing he gets a 5.5, but I am not fully sold on that until I see the CWS lineup.
As long as his velo stays up, you have to love what Jesus Luzardo (PHI) is doing for his new team. The Braves are a shell of their ‘23 offensive juggernaut—especially without Acuña or even Profar—so ride that Luzardo train until he runs out of steam (and he will eventually).
Beyond that, there are just a lot of question marks on this pitching slate. I have no interest in putting actual money behind anyone else, so let’s sit back, bet on some Coors hitter props, and look forward to the full Friday slate.
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