MLB Betting Preview: April 11th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIL vs. ARI, ATL vs. TB
Best parks for home runs: ATL vs. TB, PIT vs. CIN, CHC vs. LAD
Early HR targets: Josh Lowe (TB), Juan Soto (NYM), Kyle Tucker (CHC)
Pitchers I like: Jacob deGrom (TEX), Bryce Miller (SEA), Nick Pivetta (SD)
Pitchers I would fade: Davis Martin (CWS), Bryce Elder (ATL), Bailey Falter (PIT)
GABP is back on the slate, which is always a great HR target of a stadium (the entire thing). For Friday though, the short right field porch in Tampa actually profiles the best for HRs. Both are great picks for some long balls, while MIL vs. ARI also profiles as a nice overall offensive environment. Outside of that, there are some great SPs on the mound in nice matchups, bringing plenty of value to both sides.
First look at Hitter Props:
The Reds finally getting another home game should set them up for a HR or two (or more) vs. Bailey Falter and a terrible PIT pen. I also like both the Rays and the Braves to tee off a bit—especially their lefty power bats. There are no must-play spots (like we had with Coors the last few days), with plenty of setups where the offense could pop off a bit.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Manny Machado (SD) vs. Marquez: 34 PAs, .414 Avg & 1 HR
Willie Adames (SF) vs. Stroman: 23 PAs, .474 Avg & 2 HRs
Spencer Steer (CIN) vs. Falter: 15 PAs, .539 Avg & 1 HR
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Ray: 13 PAs, .375 Avg & 3 HRs
Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Miller: 7 PAs, .600 Avg & 2 HRs
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Francis: 9 PAs, .714 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
With the Mariners having another home game, it sets up both Bryce Miller (SEA) and his opposing ace Jacob deGrom (TEX) for great outings. The park factors for Seattle the lat few years has skewed heavily in favor of pitching, and these 2 have the stuff to take advantage. It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for both, but I expect deGrom to bounce back in a huge way in this spot—likely clearing a 6.5 line for us with ease—and I think Miller is very much in play for an Over as well depending on the line we see. It’s important to note: if deGrom somehow falters in this spot, we will have to accept that his purposefully lower velocity approach to stay healthier does not miss enough bats to consider him a K Prop ace anymore.
After a 6-game series at home, the Rockies are always a juicy strikeout target on the road. This means Nick Pivetta (SD) should absolutely cruise against them in his pitcher-friendly home park. Regardless of his season up until now, I love him to cash a 6.5 for us, and possibly even more. It’s been a trend—and it makes a ton of sense—that when the Rockies leave the higher elevation of Coors and get back to normal venues with normal break on pitches, they struggle big time to adjust.
Other SPs that I am incredibly intrigued by early on, but we need to see lineups first: Kris Bubic (KC), Reese Olson (DET), Robbie Ray (SF), & Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI). All have the upside and matchups to post sneaky high strikeout totals.
Friday fade watch: Davis Martin (CWS), Andre Pallante (STL), Bailey Falter (PIT), Bowden Francis (TOR), Bryce Elder (ATL), & German Marquez (COL). I don’t trust any of these arms, and the matchups could be ripe for some Unders.
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