MLB Betting Preview: April 12th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIL vs. ARI, PIT vs. CIN
Best parks for home runs: PIT vs. CIN, CHC vs. LAD, ATL vs. TB,
Early HR targets: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Bryce Harper (PHI), Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)
Pitchers I like: Cristopher Sanchez (PHI), Kyle Hart (SD), Richard Fitts (BOS), Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Pitchers I would fade: Chase Dollander (COL), Bowden Francis (TOR), Miles Mikolas (STL)
This cold weather needs to move along for the season already, as there are no great offensive set ups across this entire Saturday slate. With that said, K Prop and pitcher fans will be very happy again. If I did want to grab some Home Runs, I love the sneaky value on the Pirates of all teams against Andrew Abbott. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher making his first start of the season in the best spot for HRs.
First look at Hitter Props:
It’s straight up gross in general for offense, but some things that have caught my eye include the Dodgers at full strength at home against a RHP (Ben Brown). They could really tee off. Another spot with sneaky value—besides the Pirates hitting a couple HRs in GABP—is the Angels against Ryan Gusto in a spot start. Both them and the Astros could make noise in Houston with the shallow LF seats as a giant target for righty power.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Yordan Alvarez (HOU vs. Anderson: 21 PAs, .368 Avg & 3 HRs
Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Mikolas: 24 PAs, .348 Avg & 2 HRs
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Francis: 9 PAs, .714 Avg & 2 HRs
Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Woo: 6 PAs, .750 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
In terms of strikeouts, there is not a single matchup on this slate where I saw it as a must-play. There are a ton that I am interested in for Overs based on lineups: Sandy Alcantra (MIA), Bryan Woo (SEA), Drew Rasmussen (TB) & Richard Fitts (BOS). On the flip side, those that I am considering fading include: Andrew Abbott (CIN), Ben Brown (CHC), Chris Paddack (MIN) & Ryan Gusto (HOU).
There’s a strong chance I lean heavily into Home Run and Hitter values on the spots I’ve mentioned and mostly skip K Props. BUT as you all know: that can change if we get a surprise lineup or two.
Stay green!
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