MLB Betting Preview: April 13th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIL vs. ARI, PHI vs. STL, PIT vs. CIN
Best parks for home runs: CHC vs. LAD, PIT vs. CIN
Early HR targets: Adley Rutschman (BAL), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Aaron Judge (NYY)
Pitchers I like: Garrett Crochet (BOS), Hunter Greene (CIN), MacKenzie Gore (WAS), Michael King (COL)
Pitchers I would fade: Cade Povich (BAL), Jameson Taillon (CHC), Jose Berrios (TOR)
It’s Sunday, so I always play things light on the highest variance day of the MLB week. A lot of regular players get the day off or leave early to prepare for traveling and the new week. This does present last minute value on K Props and HR prices when surprise bench bats draw a start, but I still keep it light. You can always find my Longshot Sundays post as lineups drop, which is a fun way to get some cheap action. I cashed 2 of the 3 last week for +500 and +600 hits!
First look at Hitter Props:
Another mediocre slate in terms overall offensive upside, which is fine for a Sunday. GABP in Cincinnati is always a nice HR park, and it looks slightly above average. Hunter Greene has been insanely good to start the year, so I would prefer Reds bats to hit some out against Carmen Mlodzinski and a bad bullpen. Dodger Stadium also looks solid for some HRs, and both teams have plenty of great pop and bats to choose from. Much like the pitching at GABP, Glasnow being so much better than Taillon makes me like Dodgers a lot more.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Adley Rutschman (BAL) vs. Berrios: 27 PAs, .600 Avg & 4 HRs
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) vs. Severino: 10 PAs, .571 Avg & 1 HR
Manny Machado (SD) vs. Freeland: 55 PAs!, .347 Avg
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Garrett Crochet (BOS) has had 3 tough matchups to start his season, and now he gets the White Sox—just an elite spot for Ks and not a lot of threats in the lineup to slow him down. We may see our first 9.5 line of the season (probably not, but I will gladly play a 6.5 with a strong consideration for a ladder).
Hunter Greene (CIN) even though he is at home in HR-friendly GABP has too nice of a matchup to not take a look. Until we see any sign of velocity decline, the Ks will keep piling up. We may see a 6.5, and I like that as long as the juice is not too crazy.
A couple other strikeout arms that I love the matchups for but need to see the opening lines: Michael King (COL) & MacKenzie Gore (WAS).
Some aces that people love to bet on, but actually have some sneaky tough matchups: Cole Ragans (KC), Chris Sale (ATL), Freddy Peralta (MIL), Logan Gilbert (SEA), Zack Wheeler (PHI) & Tyler Glasnow (LAD). At least a couple of them will have ace outings—that’s just what these guys do—but I am not backing them for Ks without seeing the lineups they will face.
Stay green!
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