MLB Betting Preview: April 14th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: BOS vs. TB, NYM vs MIN, WAS vs. PIT
Best parks for home runs: BOS vs. TB, SF vs. PHI
Early HR targets: Bobby Witt (KC), Mookie Betts (LAD), Willie Adames (SF)
Pitchers I like: Tarik Skubal (DET), Paul Skenes (PIT)
Pitchers I would fade: Taijuan Walker (PHI), Carlos Carrasco (NYY), Antonio Senzatela (COL)
It’s been an amazing HR & K Prop run after a bit of a slow K start in late March, so let’s dissect this slate quick and find some spots to target. There are only 10 games—somewhat common for Mondays—with 2 standout Home Run spots (listed above) and zero elite overall Run environments. The Dodgers should crush Senzatela & a tired pen, and Tarik Skubal should cruise in Milwaukee.
First look at Hitter Props:
The nice thing about a smaller slate like this is it makes the standout spots easy to find. If you want Home Runs, it’s BOS vs. TB (especially left-handed power) and then SF vs. PHI. If you want exploitable matchups in general for Bases, Runs, etc. it is the Dodgers vs. Senzatela and a cooked bullpen, and also the Royals until they chase Carlos Carrasco in the Bronx. From a value standpoint, I think the Giants could pop off a bit against Taijuan Walker, but also keep in mind that the Phillies pen is solid when called upon.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Senzatela: 22 PAs, .450 Avg & 2 HRs
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) vs. Lugo: 13 PAs, .636 Avg & 2 HRs
Alex Bregman (BOS) vs. Baz: 7 PAs, .714 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Tarik Skubal (DET) has had one nice K matchup—he struck out 8—and then 2 tough ones. A date with the Brewers is definitely closer to an easy one, setting him up nicely after 6 very stress-free innings last time out. He faced most of the projected MIL lineup last year and K’d 10. I am guessing we see a solidly priced 6.5 to start.
Another ace that is always worth consideration is Paul Skenes (PIT) who draws a start against a team that has logged 2 total PAs against him (both were Amed Rosario and he struck out in one of them). For the last few years, the Nats were a K nightmare for opposing pitchers, but that has changed a lot with the roster seeing a major overhaul. They’re about middle of the pack vs. RHP, so if Skenes sees a nice enough opening line, it’s worth a long look.
Some other Overs I am considering, depending on lines and the lineups they draw: Grant Holmes (ATL) & Clay Holmes (NYM). Both Holmes (Holmeses? Holmies?) have ever-improving starter arsenals, and it feels like the books haven’t fully caught on yet.
Some Unders I am watching for: Carlos Carrasco (NYY), Antonio Senzatela (COL), Taijuan Walker (PHI). All 3 are pretty bad arms against really good offensive ball clubs, with 2 of them in the better hitting environments on the slate.
Lineup-dependent arms that are sneakily good at missing bats: Landen Roupp (SF) & Easton Lucas (TOR).
Lastly, he should pitch great but beware the Dustin May (LAD) trap. Everyone will see the matchup with the Rockies—which is an elite one for Ks, don’t get me wrong, we cashed twice on it this week—and hammer a likely 5.5 opening line. May prefers to pound the zone with insane movement and generate weak contact to go deep into games. His velocity plays up enough that some starts bring the Ks along as well, but he is not out there looking for them.
Stay green!
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