MLB Betting Preview: April 15th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CLE vs. BAL, SEA vs. CIN
Best parks for home runs: SEA vs. CIN, KC vs. NYY, BOS vs. TB
Early HR targets: Randy Arozarena (SEA), Juan Soto (NYM), Cody Bellinger (NYY)
Pitchers I like: Jeffrey Springs (ATH), Jack Flaherty (DET), Merrill Kelly (ARI)
Pitchers I would fade: Ryan Feltner (COL), Logan Allen (BAL), Randy Vasquez (SD)
This is looking like an early spring night for offense, with some solid park factor setups for hitting (and with a lack of great pitching matchups). The SPs that I do like are mostly in tough spots, so I may lean more heavily into the hitting side for once. Both GABP (SEA vs. CIN) and the Bronx (KC vs. NYY) should lead to multiple home runs, though we are still not yet to the best launch pad weather for either venue.
First look at Hitter Props:
The Orioles’ right-handed power should tee off against Logan Allen, especially now that they brought the LF wall in quite a bit in Baltimore. I could see a Mariner or two and also a Red or two taking Lodolo or Castillo deep in HR-friendly GABP. Neither one has been missing many bats early on. In the Bronx, Fried lives off of groundballs and Ks, so I mostly like the Yankees against Wacha and will skip the KC bats (after cashing in on Witt on Monday!).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Randy Arozarena (SEA) vs. Lodolo: 6 PAs, .667 Avg & 2 HRs
Adolis Garcia (TEX) vs. Kikuchi: 9 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
Josh Bell (WAS) vs. Keller: 13 PAs, .667 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
The cushiest matchup on this slate looks to belong to Jeffrey Springs (ATH) as he takes on a terrible White Sox lineup. The only legit LHP they’ve faced was Crochet who struck out 11, and even Sean Newcomb of all people K’d 6.
Jack Flaherty (DET) looks like the version of himself that had a resurgence and second career breakout last year, which sets him up nice against the Brewers who had to deal with a nasty lefty last time out. Flaherty has the kind of movement profiles on pitches that should generate plenty of whiffs against them—especially since he’s coming from the opposite side.
Don’t look now, but Justin Verlander (SF) may be the next in line for a late resurgence that nobody saw coming, for like the 3rd time in his HoF career. He had 20 whiffs last time out, his breaking balls have the movement of a few years ago, and his velocity is creeping back up too. He is crediting it to finally feeling healthy again after things have been cleared up in his neck and shoulder, and the current whiff-rate supports this. He could be a sneaky source of Ks moving forward (until he inevitably slows down again due to age).
There are plenty of SPs I am looking to fade, depending on the lines we see: Connor Gillispie (MIA), Logan Allen (CLE), Mitch Keller (PIT), Randy Vasquez (SD), Ryan Feltner (COL) & Sean Burke (CWS).
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
