MLB Betting Preview: April 16th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: LAA vs. TEX, ARI vs. MIA
Best parks for home runs: LAA vs. TEX, DET vs. MIL, SEA vs. CIN
Early HR targets: Max Muncy (LAD), Corey Seager (TEX), Taylor Ward (LAA)
Pitchers I like: Brandon Pfaadt (ARI), Kris Bubic (KC), Bryce Miller (SEA)
Pitchers I would fade: German Marquez (COL), Patrick Corbin (TEX), Sean Newcomb (BOS)
The long awaited return of Spencer Strider is here! Also, Fade Corbin Day is in full effect for those that celebrate. No amazing offensive spots, but the ball should fly in Arlington.
First look at Hitter Props:
Stack those Angels righties against Patrick Corbin, as they’ve hit .300+ against him for 5 straight years now. It’s also the best park factor setup for some HR action, making it a no-brainer spot to target. Outside of that, GABP in Cincy & Milwaukee are always worth a look for HRs as well. Everywhere else actually profiles to be in favor of the pitching (a common mid April theme).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Josh Bell (WAS) vs. Falter: 10 PAs, .714 Avg & 2 HRs
Dansby Swanson (CHC) vs. Pivetta: 33 PAs, .313 Avg & 2 HRs
Gleyber Torres (DET) vs. Quintana: 8 PAs, .571 Avg & 1 HR
Freeman, Smith, Betts & Muncy (LAD) vs. Marquez: A lot of PAs & HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
The Quadfather returns! Spencer Strider (ATL) is fully stretched out and has looked as nasty as ever, but it is worth noting his velo is not all the way back yet. I am excited to watch him against MLB hitters again, and may grab a 6.5 if the price is right. It’s a tough K matchup and the performance at lower velo is uncertain, so I would not want to go above that in his debut.
Bryce Miller (SEA) allows a lot of flyballs, which is not a great recipe for success in GABP, but he misses enough bats that this matchup vs. the Reds is worth a look. Most likely a lineup dependent 5.5 scenario for me to be in.
The Marlins continue to be the ultimate streamer matchup, as they offer little pop and a lot of whiffs—the perfect combo for pitcher props. It’s perfect timing for Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) who has finally figured out how to survive against lefties (allegedly). This is another wait-and-see spot, as the fish could throw a lot of LHHs at him, and most of his Ks come against righties.
Fade City! Waiting on opening lines to potentially grab some Unders: Patrick Corbin (TEX), German Marquez (COL), Bailey Falter (PIT), Bobby Miller (LAD), Jonathan Cannon (CWS), Keider Montero (DET) & Ronel Blanco (HOU).
Stay green!
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