MLB Betting Preview: April 17th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: LAA vs. TEX
Best parks for home runs: LAA vs. TEX, NYY vs. TB, SEA vs CIN
Early HR targets: Bobby Witt (KC), Corbin Carroll (ARI)
Pitchers I like: Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI), Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
Pitchers I would fade: Davis Martin (CWS), Jack Kochanowicz (LAA)
A small 10-game slate, so no need to force action. We should see multiple HRs in Texas and Tampa, and possibly Cincinnati as well. There are no bonafide aces on the mound, so K Prop opportunities may be limited until Friday.
First look at Hitter Props:
The setup in Texas once again leads the way for both park factor boosts to Runs and to Home Runs. GABP (SEA vs. CIN) looks solid for a couple HRs as well. With only 10 games, the spots where you could see a lot of offense are pretty limited: Texas, Cincinnati, Baltimore, & Tampa.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. Singer: 15 PAs, .357 Avg & 1 HR
Bobby Witt (KC) vs. Olson: 13 PAs, .546 Avg & 2 HRs
Lourdes Gurriel (ARI) vs. Cabrera: 5 PAs, .667 Avg & 1 HR
Adolis Garcia (TEX) vs. Kochanowicz: 3 PAs, .500 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Just like last night where I highlighted Bryce Miller, his teammate Bryan Woo (SEA) is pitching great and should be able to miss enough bats in GABP to find 6+ Ks. He could give up a HR or two, but I mostly expect him to cruise. *UPDATE: Emerson Hancock is now pitching for the Mariners. He is a strong stay-away for me, and makes me very interested in Reds bats now instead.
We. Stream. Against. The. Marlins. This is true almost every night, and I like Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) to find plenty of Ks against them (I would play a 5.5 at the right price). E-Rod almost always has plenty of strikeouts; he just needs to go deeper into starts. A date with the Marlins could certainly fix that.
Will Warren (NYY) is worth monitoring, as he suddenly has a new 4-seamer with better overall shape that led to a lot of whiffs. I can’t justify putting money behind it yet, but if he does it again, there will be nice value in his next start.
It’s entirely possible that the edges lie in the Unders again, but we will see what the books give us! I will be locking in some plays tonight and early tomorrow in the discord, and then Tweeting out official plays later on like always. It’s been an incredible run: 5-0 this week on Ks, 14-3 dating back to last week.
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
