MLB Betting Preview: April 18th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: ARI vs. CHC, WAS vs. COL, CIN vs. BAL
Best parks for home runs: ARI vs. CHC, CIN vs. BAL, MIA vs. PHI
Early HR targets: Choose your favorite DBack or Cub! Carroll or Naylor (ARI), Tucker or Busch (CHC)
Pitchers I like: Garrett Crochet (BOS), MacKenzie Gore (WAS), Cole Ragans (KC), Zack Wheeler (PHI)
Pitchers I would fade: Andrew Abbott (CIN), Tyler Anderson (LAA), Ryan Gusto (HOU)
Our first Wrigley launch pad day of the year! The most wind-effected venue in MLB has the perfect setup for some bombs. In fact, 3 parks are looking really nice for HRs: Wrigley by a mile, then Baltimore & Philly. We also have Coors on the slate again, giving countless ways to bet on hitter props. Also, a lot of aces are on the bump!
First look at Hitter Props:
It’s hard to know where to start, with some really favorable hitting conditions finally showing up this season. Wrigley Field should have strong winds blowing straight out plus ideal air pressure, and that gives the DBacks & Cubs massive bumps to their Home Run potential. There is not a single MLB park more effected by wind. The setup is great in Baltimore too, where I like both the Orioles & Reds to tee off a bit vs. some unproven pitching. In Philly, the weather is just as nice but with Wheeler on the hill, I will be completely ignoring the Marlins and grabbing some Phillies bats. So many great options; pick your favorites! My bold HR call of the night: Dansby Swanson off of Corbin Burnes.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Alcantara: 49 PAs, .308 Avg & 1 HR
Wilmer Flores (SF) vs. Anderson: 24 PAs, .381 Avg & 1 HR
Dansby Swanson (CHC) vs. Burnes: 21 PAs, .600 Avg & 2 HRs
Adley Rutschman (BAL) vs. Abbott: 6 PAs, .600 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
In his last start, I highlighted Garrett Crochet (BOS) as a potential ladder candidate against his former team. The result was a max ladder cash, as he struck out 11 White Sox. He gets them again, and I would 100% back him again—even though I normally fade SPs when they see a team twice in a row. The Sox are that bad, and Crochet is that good. *EDIT: Looks like he is getting one more day of rest, and I have zero interest in Martin Perez or whoever else they trot out there.
Cole Ragans (KC) is absolutely dealing right now, with 10+ Ks in 3 straight starts. He hasn’t seen the Tigers yet this year, but 1 of his 3 starts last season was a 12 K domination. The young Detroit squad is much improved, and we likely see a 6.5 with solid juice for an opening line. I would prefer to wait and see the DET lineup first, but Ragans is always an Over consideration.
LHP vs. the Rockies will always be a thing—even in Coors—and I think MacKenzie Gore (WAS) will pile up the Ks in this spot given the elite matchup and how great his 4-seamer can be (breaking balls are the main thing effected by the higher elevation). He hasn’t visited since 2023 when he struck out 7, and his stuff and overall approach as a pitcher have greatly improved since then. There is some rain risk, so I would wait on this one until we make sure he won’t run into a shortened outing.
In case it wasn’t obvious, I am 100% off of Corbin Burnes (ARI) and Colin Rea (CHC) and may grab an Under on one or both depending on the opening lines we see. Burnes cannot find consistently his cutter and the whiffs are just not there, and Rea is typically a spot starter but found his way into a depleted rotation. These offenses are just too good when you bring in elite hitting weather. Other fades I am potentially looking at: Andrew Abbott (CIN), David Peterson (NYM), Ryan Gusto (HOU) & Freddy Peralta (MIL).
Stay green!
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