MLB Betting Preview: April 20th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: WAS vs. COL G1, WAS vs. COL G2
Best parks for home runs: ATH vs. MIL, LAD vs. TEX, WAS vs. COL
Early HR targets: Michael Toglia (COL), Lawrence Butler (ATH), Freddie Freeman (LAD), James Wood (WAS)
Pitchers I like: Dylan Cease (SD), Jesus Luzardo (PHI)
Pitchers I would fade: Literally all 4 SPs in the Coors double header
It’s Sunday, so I always play things light on the highest variance day of the MLB week. A lot of regular players get the day off or leave early to prepare for traveling and the new week. This does present last minute value on K Props and HR prices when surprise bench bats draw a start, but I still keep it light. You can always find my Longshot Sundays post as lineups drop, which is a fun way to get some cheap action. My favorite spot for value will be the 2nd game of the double header in Coors Field. We will see some random bench bats draw a start in the nightcap, and the pitching will likely be tired/taxed.
First look at Hitter Props:
Coors Field leads the way in terms of projected offense, as it often does when it’s on the slate. Despite not being an amazing spot for home runs this time, the massive outfield real estate and thin air will inevitably lead to a lot of traffic on the base paths (Total Bases props should do very well). If you do want to sprinkle on HRs, it’s the parks I highlighted above.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Josh Bell (WAS) vs. Senzatela: 10 PAs, .571 Avg
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Gray: 12 PAs, .500 Avg & 1 HR
Marcus Semien (TEX) vs. Glasnow: 13 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
With it being Sunday, I don’t see any obvious must-play spots, so I am likely out on full K Prop plays. I will still grab some DFS action, and these are some early leans regardless of lines: Dylan Cease (SD), Jesus Luzardo (MIA) & Joe Ryan (MIN) for Overs, and then Luis Castillo (SEA), Mitch Keller (PIT) & Connor Gillispie (MIA) for Unders.
Stay green!
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