MLB Betting Preview: April 21st, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: NYY vs. CLE (especially lefties), CIN vs. MIA, CWS vs. BOS
Best parks for home runs: TOR vs. HOU, STL vs. ATL
Early HR targets: Pete Alonso (NYM), Marcell Ozuna (ATL)
Pitchers I like: Max Meyer (MIA), Nick Lodolo (CIN), Robbie Ray (SF)
Pitchers I would fade: Erick Fedde (STL), Jonathan Cannon (CWS)
There are only 8 games—small slates are common for Mondays—without any standout Home Run spots and also zero elite overall Run environments. One thing to note: it’s Patriots’ Day in Boston, which means we get early baseball (11:10am EST!).
First look at Hitter Props:
The combination of a lot of colder weather and pitcher friendly ballparks has this looking like a tough slate for offensive fireworks. Most of the Mets best bats have seen Aaron Nola a ton, which has to give them a huge advantage. Also, from a narrative standpoint: it would make sense to back the Red Sox at home against a terrible White Sox club as they celebrate Patriots’ Day.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Nola: 57 PAs, .327 Avg & 6 HRs
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. Fedde: 17 PAs, .583 Avg & 2 HRs
Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. Schmidt: 12 PAs, .455 Avg
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
It’ll likely be a slow first K Prop day, which is too bad considering the run we’re on (12-1 last week; 24-3 over the last 2!). For those who read this each night, here’s a freebie to try and beat the lines: Tylor Megill (NYM) u5.5 Ks, priced at -125 on DK, BU, etc. I anticipate this moving in our favor overnight. If Aaron Nola (PHI) on the other side jumps to 6.5 overnight, I will likely fade that as well tomorrow.
I’ve talked about Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) multiple times this season already, as he is basically an ace by most metrics. The Cards do not K much, but if he gets a favorable line or lineup, I will be in for his Over. He’s just too rare of a combination of control and bat missing secondaries.
Robbie Ray (SF) still hasn’t fully harnessed the potential of his changeup vs. righties, and yet he’s still been great at times. The Brewers whiff a lot vs. LHP, so this is a wait-and-see spot but I am very interested.
The other 2 SPs I am keeping an eye on are Nick Lodolo (CIN) & Max Meyer (MIA), who are squaring off in Miami—a great pitcher’s park. Lodolo gets the Marlins who we’ve targeted often for Ks and other pitching props, and Meyer has been showing really good stuff early on.
That is all on such a small slate. I will never force action, but I hope to have at least 2 K Props tomorrow.
Stay green!
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