MLB Betting Preview: April 19th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CWS vs. BOS, CIN vs. BAL, WAS vs. COL
Best parks for home runs: MIA vs. PHI, CIN vs. BAL, STL vs. NYM
Early HR targets: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Brandon Lowe (TB), Mark Vientos (NYM)
Pitchers I like: Chris Sale (ATL), Garrett Crochet (BOS), Hunter Greene (CIN), MacKenzie Gore (COL)
Pitchers I would fade: Zac Gallen (ARI), Kyle Hendricks (LAA), Carlos Carrasco (NYY), Cal Quantrill (MIA)
3 great spots for runs and 3 great spots for home runs, with Philly especially leading the way for some bombs. There’s also A TON of aces on the mound, giving plenty of ways to attack K Props…
First look at Hitter Props:
First off, congrats to anyone that saw my early heads up on Wrigley. The result: 24 total runs & 7 home runs. Insane fun on Friday afternoon…
For our Saturday slate, I can’t take my eyes off the combination of park setup and opposing pitching for the Phillies. They could go nuclear vs. Quantrill and a really bad Miami pen. With a ton of aces going, it stands out as an elite hitting prop option. Coors is also back and always in play for Total Bases (not so much for HRs this time), plus Boston and Baltimore look great as well for more offense.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Quantrill: 17 PAs, 3 HRs, .750 SLG
Vladimir Guerrero (TOR) vs. Gilbert: 14 PAs, .385 Avg, 2 HRs
Brandon Lowe (TB) vs. Carrasco: 12 PAs, .400 Avg, 2 HRs
Bobby Witt (KC) vs. Mize: 11 PAs, .500 Avg, 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Bringing this back from last night’s first look, since he was given an extra day of rest: In his last start, I highlighted Garrett Crochet (BOS) as a potential ladder candidate against his former team. The result was a max ladder cash, as he struck out 11 White Sox. He gets them again, and I would 100% back him again—even though I normally fade SPs when they see a team twice in a row. The Sox are that bad, and Crochet is that good.
The Twins have been making a lot of contact this season, but their lineup is now full of young guys looking to prove they belong. This feels like the kind of spot where Chris Sale (ATL) should pile up the whiffs and strikeouts, especially with the pen needing a bit of a breather.
Another one from last night (the game was PPD), and now without the weather concerns that kept me away on Friday: LHP vs. the Rockies will always be a thing—even in Coors—and I think MacKenzie Gore (WAS) will pile up the Ks in this spot given the elite matchup and how great his 4-seamer can be (breaking balls are the main thing effected by the higher elevation). He hasn’t visited since 2023 when he struck out 7, and his stuff and overall approach as a pitcher have greatly improved since then.
There are just too many great K artists going, but others I am keeping a very close eye on either for lineups or opening prop lines: Paul Skenes (PIT), Michael King (SD), Shane Baz (NYY), Hunter Greene (CIN), & Logan Gilbert (SEA). There’s a strong chance I play the Over on at least one of these.
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
