MLB Betting Preview: April 22nd, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: SEA vs. BOS, COL vs. KC, TB vs. ARI
Best parks for home runs: PIT vs. LAA, LAD vs. CHC, STL vs. ATL
Early HR targets: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Austin Riley (ATL)
Pitchers I like: Bailey Ober (MIN), Kris Bubic (KC)
Pitchers I would fade: Patrick Corbin (TEX), Bailey Falter (PIT)
Our first full slate of the week has nice spots for offense but not necessarily home runs. No aces on the mound, but plenty of solid bat missers with solid matchups. It’s also a major DFS day with Tacos on PrizePicks, promos on Sleeper and likely some on Underdog too.
First look at Hitter Props:
The weather is much better in Boston, and I’d expect a lot of traffic on the bases for both squads in this one. Bryce Miller can pile up the whiffs, but he can also get touched for HRs due to his flyball profile, so both teams are in play in this spot. Spacious Kauffman Stadium should also lend itself to a lot of traffic, mostly for the Royals though with Bubic likely to have a nice outing.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Bassitt: 23 PAs, .421 Avg & 5 HRs
Willie Adames (SF) vs. Quintana: 18 PAs, .353 Avg & 1 HR
Fernando Tatis (SD) vs. Flaherty: 13 PAs, .700 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
A lot of lines have already dropped, making for some decision points in great matchups. I was excited to grab Kris Bubic (KC) against the Rockies away from Coors but a 7.5 opening line is a little tough to smash the Over. It is suddenly more of a lineup-dependent play.
The same goes for Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. the White Sox, who DraftKings pegged to an opening line of 6.5. I thought we would see both of these SPs a line lower, but they project as excellent Alt K options for DFS or parlays at least.
Some potential fades I am considering include Bryce Miller (SEA), Osvaldo Bido (ATH), Andre Pallante (STL) & Zack Littell (ARI). I would also caution people on chasing the run that Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) is on. He has been getting a ton of strikeouts, but he also still has a really low floor on days where he just pounds sinkers in the zone to go deep into the game. His range of outcomes vs. the Mets is literally anywhere from 3 to 10 Ks.
Stay green!
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