MLB Betting Preview: April 23rd, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: SEA vs. BOS, COL vs. KC, TB vs. ARI
Best parks for home runs: PIT vs. LAA, TOR vs. HOU
Early HR targets: Eugenio Suarez (ARI), Matt Olson (ATL)
Pitchers I like: Brady Singer (CIN), Logan Webb (SF), Shane Smith (CWS)
Pitchers I would fade: Bryce Elder (ATL), Emerson Hancock (SEA)
Expect a lot of offense in Boston and a fair amount in KC again, but there are no standout HR park setups on the slate. Plenty of solid SPs, but most have sneaky tough matchups (tread lightly).
First look at Hitter Props:
There is yet again none of our elite home run environments, but there is definitely some spots that project great for offense in general. Neither pitcher in Boston will miss a ton of bats, so both the Mariners and Red Sox should hit the ball all over the field in the best hitting conditions on the slate. The Orioles should also bounce back in a big way against a mediocre righty (they are so much better vs. RHP!). Lastly, I could see a handful of HRs still in Sacramento for either the Rangers or the Athletics.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Carlos Santana (CLE) vs. Rodon: 45 PAs!, .385 Avg & 2 HRs
Bryce Harper (PHI) vs. Peterson: 25 PAs, .381 Avg & 1 HR
Matt Olson (ATL vs. Mikolas: 12 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) vs. Mikolas: 152 PAs, .385 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
There are a few legit aces going, but I don’t love the matchups for Zack Wheeler (PHI) or Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), making both line-dependent plays. Logan Webb (SF) has been pitching great and has a solid matchup, making him a strong lean while we wait for opening lines to drop.
I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve said it, but yet again: a pitcher looks to be in a great spot vs. the Marlins. This time, it’s Brady Singer (CIN) who will enjoy a start away from GABP in a much more pitcher-friendly venue.
Bryce Elder (ATL) feels like an auto-fade, though I would guess the books throw a gross 3.5 at us. I still may get crazy and pull the trigger on that Under. His skillset vs. the Cardinals contact should not generate very many empty swings.
Some other Overs that I am very intrigued by and will be watching opening lines closely: David Festa (MIN) vs. the White Sox, Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. the Giants, Reese Olson (DET) vs. the Padres & Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs. the Reds.
Stay green!
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