MLB Betting Preview: April 24th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: COL vs. KC, SEA vs. BOS
Best parks for home runs: PIT vs. LAA, TEX vs. ATH
Early HR targets: Mike Trout (LAA), Bobby Witt (KC)
Pitchers I like: Cole Ragans (KC), Garrett Crochet (BOS), Jacob deGrom (TEX), MacKenzie Gore (WAS), Landen Roupp (SF)
Pitchers I would fade: Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT), Chase Dollander (COL)
A small 8-game slate that should be dominated by pitching. A lot of aces are on the mound and the combination of weather and ballparks also lean in favor of pitching.
First look at Hitter Props:
This feels like a great time to remind everyone how long an MLB season is. We are about 15% of the way through a 162 game marathon, and much better hitting weather will be here in no time. For now, without any elite HR parks on the slate, I will continue to be patient and mostly grab Total Bases, Total Runs, etc. (but still the occasional HR sprinkle). The days of multiple HR Parlays are coming, so just be patient.
I like the Angels to tag Carmen Mlodzinski and a bad bullpen for a lot of offense. I could also see the Royals being very busy on the base paths vs. Dollander & Co. There are no must-play spots though.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Lourdes Gurriel (ARI) vs. Rasmussen: 11 PAs, .364 Avg & 1 HR
Randy Arozarena (SEA) vs. Crochet: 5 PAs, a perfect 1.000 Avg & 1 HR
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) vs. Anderson: 6 PAs, .667 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
This slate feels like “Choose Your Ace!”, where I could see playing Overs in almost every game (depending on the lines we get). I do think Cole Ragans (KC) leads the way, as his matchup checks all of the boxes: great pitching park, plenty of potential Ks in the opposing lineup, and he’s pitching great with a ton of early success piling up strikeouts.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) should miss enough bats to also end up with a really nice final stat line against the Mariners, though Fenway can always lean very hitter-friendly if too much contact is made. He was bombed by them in their last matchup but then also K’d 13 in the one before that (somewhere in the middle is the likeliest outcome).
The Athletics are not K’ing much at all vs. RHP, but you always have to give Jacob deGrom (TEX) a long look—especially after what he just did to the Dodgers.
MacKenzie Gore (WAS) is leading the league in strikeouts and although the Orioles look scary on paper, they’ve struggled mightily against southpaws. Mitchell Parker of all people shut them out over 8 innings of 1-hit baseball. It’s hard not to love Gore’s current form and arsenal against that same squad.
We likely see 6.5’s+ for all of these guys, and possibly even a 7.5 (Ragans) or two.
Potential fades (Unders) I am watching closely to possibly buy in: Chris Paddack (MIN), Shane Smith (CWS), J.T. Ginn (ATH), Corbin Burnes (ARI), Chase Dollander (COL), Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) & Cade Povich (BAL).
Stay green!
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