MLB Betting Preview: April 25th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: BOS vs. CLE, BAL vs. DET, ATL vs. ARI
Best parks for home runs: BOS vs. CLE, ATL vs. ARI, TOR vs. NYY
Early HR targets: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Jazz Chisholm (NYY), Brenton Doyle (COL)
Pitchers I like: Logan Gilbert (SEA), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), Shane Baz (TB)
Pitchers I would fade: Casey Mize (DET), Kyle Freeland (COL), Taijuan Walker (PHI)
The weather is starting to warm up, and there are some solid offensive spots: Cleveland, Arizona, the Bronx & Coors. Also, a lot of aces on the mound again for plenty of great K opportunities.
First look at Hitter Props:
The Guardians rearranged some seating before last season, and it led to a large surge in power and home runs out to right field. The park factor setup for Friday should allow for multiple balls to get lost in those seats with neither pitcher able to miss many bats. We also have the short porch in the Bronx back on this slate, and Coors Field as well. Plenty of ways to pick your spots!
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Berrios: 42 PAs, .382 Avg & 5 HRs
Julio Rodriguez (SEA) vs. Quantrill: 11 PAs, .546 Avg & 2 HRs
Mike Yastrzemski (SF) vs. Eovaldi: 6 PAs, .400 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Logan Gilbert (SEA) leads the way on this slate. He’s striking out everybody, keeping baserunners and runs in check, and now gets his easiest matchup of the season against the Marlins. The books may throw an 8.5 at us, and I think I would still take it in this spot. This is a legit ladder consideration, regardless of whatever the final MIA lineup ends up being.
The Pirates have been almost as good of a streaming matchup as the Marlins, so I love Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) to cruise against the Pirates. He seems to have fully acclimated his elite arsenal to MLB hitters and is looking as nasty as any pitcher going right now. I would be very much in on a 6.5 (something we have not really seen on Yamamoto’s lines historically; he is usually a 5.5 guy), and I would possibly even go above that depending on the PIT lineup.
This one may be my favorite sneaky matchup of the entire slate: Shane Baz (TB) vs. the Padres. Baz seems to be evolving into the long promised ace that was continuously derailed by injuries until now. His fastball/curve combo is top tier, and this is suddenly a really nice matchup for Ks with the Padres not having Arraez, Merrill or Cronenworth in the lineup. I will gladly play a 5.5 in this spot, and I hope the books give it to us (but we probably get a 6.5, which would then likely come down to the juice and the lineup for me).
Nobody has been striking out more than the Angels lately, which sets up Pablo López (MIN) for a great first start back from injury. I don’t love to back guys fresh off the IL, but it is a great matchup on paper. This likely comes down to the opening line and/or lineup we get.
Some aces that people love taking the Over on, but that have sneaky tough matchups (so be careful) - Chris Sale (ATL), Michael King (SD), & Paul Skenes (PIT).
Lastly, some fades I am keeping an eye on: Carlos Carrasco (NYY), Jose Berrios (TOR), Sean Burke (CWS), Taijuan Walker (PHI) & Tanner Houck (BOS). Some potential Unders, depending on what we get.
Stay green!
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