MLB Betting Preview: April 26th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CIN vs. COL, TOR vs. NYY
Best parks for home runs: TOR vs. NYY, CIN vs. COL
Early HR targets: Ben Rice (NYY), anyone at Coors (Elly De La Cruz, Brenton Doyle)
Pitchers I like: Hunter Greene (CIN), Luis Castillo (SEA), Ryan Pepiot (TB)
Pitchers I would fade: Casey Mize (DET), Brad Lord (WAS), Antonio Senzatela (COL)
One of the best overall Coors park factor setups we’ve seen this year! Runs & Home Runs are in play in Denver—mostly for the Reds. Not a lot of elite SPs going, and most that we have are stuck in tough spots, so no smash spots for pitching outside of Hunter Greene (& maybe Luis Castillo).
First look at Hitter Props:
This may change overnight, but right now Coors Field has a +21% bump above average to home runs and a +23% bump to runs. That’s an elite setup for offense—especially for the Reds against a pretty bad SP and bullpen. The ball should fly in the Bronx again too, despite a bit of a rain risk. Those spots easily lead the way if you are looking to play some Total Bases, Home Runs, HRR, etc. My bold call of the night: Aaron Judge hits TWO home runs off of Gausman & the Jays.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Gausman: 50 PAs!, .333 Avg & 6 HRs
Carlos Correa (MIN) vs. Kikuchi: 25 PAs, .478 Avg & only 3 Ks
Freddie Freeman (LAD) vs. Keller: 15 PAs, .533 Avg & 1 HR
Willie Adames (SF) vs. Mahle: 9 PAs, .500 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
On a slate full of mediocre pitchers, it feels fitting to lead with my potential fade targets (aka Unders). Brad Lord (WAS) is not really an MLB pitcher—at least not yet—and the Mets should chase him early, while not whiffing much at all. Casey Mize (DET) received some hype and attention early on, but he still hasn’t fully put things together yet either. I would be afraid to back him against the Orioles (they crush RHP). Lastly, the Dodgers have seen Mitch Keller (PIT) a fair amount and should jump all over him after dealing with Skenes on Friday.
For pitchers I actually like, Hunter Greene (CIN) is far and away the top option—despite being in Coors. There is always some blowup risk when pitching at elevation in that giant ballpark, but he has been simply elite and is missing a ton of bats. Most importantly: his four seamer can carry him and that’s huge for surviving Coors where breaking pitches typically have a lot less bite.
Here’s our daily Marlins reminder: that lineup is very bad and anyone can shine against them. That’s the main reason I would consider backing Luis Castillo (SEA) and not because of his skills at this point of his career. This is the famous Luis Castillo for the Mariners by the way, not the lesser known younger one who is also in their rotation.
Robbie Ray (SF) is also a little interesting, due to pitching at home in a very pitcher-friendly park. He still hasn’t looked as sharp as I had hoped this season, but his four seamer is downright nasty right now. That pitch is carrying him and allowing him to survive, and the second his slider comes back into ace form, it’s game on and double-digit K games will be a small possibility every time out.
One other spot I am keeping a close eye on: Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs. the Pirates. If they decide to give us a 3.5 again, though highly unlikely, you almost have to take it. He has too much promise and the Dodgers are too smart of an organization to not unlock his full potential at some point. He’s going to randomly strikeout 9 or 10 batters at some point.
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
