MLB Betting Preview: April 27th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: CIN vs. COL, TOR vs. NYY, ATL vs. ARI
Best parks for home runs: CIN vs. COL, TOR vs. NYY
Early HR targets: Aaron Judge x2 (NYY), Brenton Doyle (COL), Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
Pitchers I like: Tarik Skubal (DET), Joe Ryan (MIN), Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
Pitchers I would fade: Bailey Falter (PIT), Mitchell Parker (WAS), both SPs in Coors
It’s Sunday, so I always play things light on the highest variance day of the MLB week. A lot of regular players get the day off or leave early to prepare for traveling and the new week. This does present last minute value on K Props and HR prices when surprise bench bats draw a start, but I still keep it light. My favorite spot is definitely Coors Field again (we cashed nicely on it yesterday!), and then also the Jays & Yanks in a double-header with some wind blowing out with that famous short porch.
First look at Hitter Props:
Coors Field leads the way in terms of projected offense, as it often does when it’s on the slate. Both Runs and Home Runs are in play, so you can fire away on HRs plus Total Bases, HRR, etc. And then in the Bronx, I love the idea of sprinkling on some HRs getting deposited into that short porch.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Gausman: 50 PAs, .333 Avg & 6 HRs
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) vs. Falter: 9 PAs, .444 Avg & 2 HRs
William Contreras (MIL) vs. Fedde: 13 PAs, .636 Avg & 2 HRs
Kyle Tucker (CHC) vs. Nola: 9 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
With it being Sunday, I would like to keep things light, but there are plenty of spots that look nice...
Tarik Skubal (DET) leads the way, with the O’s struggling against much lesser LHPs this season. I lean Over for his 6.5, but would love to see a lineup first. I also lean over for Aaron Nola (PHI) against the Cubbies, but it’s very lineup-dependent as well. Tyler Glasnow (LAD) has a smash matchup as long as he gets the green light for no restrictions, and the same goes for Joe Ryan (MIN). Lastly, for Overs I like: the books seem to continue to use the Padres’ full-strength lineup to set K Prop lines against them right now, which gives some value on Zack Littell (TB). It feels gross, but he should find 4+ Ks in this spot.
Potential fades as well that are worth a look, with it being Sunday and all: Brayan Bello (BOS) is a nice potential +Money grab in just his 2nd start of the year. Nick Lodolo (CIN)—who relies on breaking balls—may struggle at elevation in Coors despite the nice matchup. Osvaldo Bido (ATH), Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL), & Logan Allen (CLE) all also have some potentially sneaky tough spots.
Stay green!
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