MLB Betting Preview: April 28th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: ATL vs. COL, STL vs. CIN, NYY vs. BAL, NYM vs. WAS
Best parks for home runs: STL vs. CIN, ATH vs. TEX
Early HR targets: Athletics righties, Willson Contreras (STL), Austin Riley (ATL)
Pitchers I like: Jack Flaherty (DET), Gavin Williams (CLE)
Pitchers I would fade: Trevor Williams (WAS), Bryce Elder (ATL), Ryan Feltner (COL)
There are only 8 games—small slates are common for Mondays—with GABP as a solid HR spot and then Coors as the other standout offensive park. With some good not great pitching options, K values may be tough to find.
First look at Hitter Props:
This dynamic duo often leads the slate, even when we have a full one, and it’s true again on Monday: GABP (in Cincinnati) is the top Home Run spot and then Coors (in Denver) is the top overall Run spot strictly from a park factors standpoint. The SPs in GABP do not miss a ton of bats, but they are solid at getting groundballs and/or softer contact. I will still sprinkle on some HRs, but it’s not the smash spot that it could be. And then in Coors, it’s game 1 for the Braves—so you may want to temper expectations until they acclimate to the elevation—but they have historically crushed the ball when they visit (since most of this roster came together a few years ago). Outside of strictly looking at park factors, I love the setup for the Mets/Nats and Yankees/O’s too. Both parks can play up great for offense without elite arms on the mound, and that is exactly what we have for all 4 teams.
Lastly, it’s Patrick Corbin day, which means you should probably grab your favorite Athletic(s) to hit some home runs—most likely a righty or two will take him deep, even if he gets a few Ks.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. Ober: 21 PAs, .316 Avg & 1 HR
Austin Riley (ATL) vs. Feltner: 7 PAs, .400 Avg & 1 HR
Willson Contreras & Nolan Gorman (STL) vs. Martinez: 3 PAs each, 1.000 Avg each, & 1 HR each
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
It’ll likely be a slow first K Prop day, given the number of games and the quality of the SPs going.
I would love to fade Trevor Williams (WAS), but early books dropped a 3.5 on us. I think he will be lucky to get to 4, but I can’t grab the Under on a 3.5. You can take u4.5 on Sleeper right now, and I would do that—it will very likely bump to 3.5 overnight and be gone by then.
Bryce Elder (ATL) is not missing bats at all this season, and the Rockies are much better vs. RHP. I love them to tee off on him, and I hope we get a playable price on a 4.5 to fade him in this spot.
The current Twins lineup is a shell of what it was a while ago, making Gavin Williams (CLE) very intriguing with a nicely priced 5.5. I may pull the trigger on this tonight, but I would love to see multiple sites agree on the MIN lineup we will likely see.
I wish the Tigers were at home, but Jack Flaherty (DET) is still my favorite pitcher on this entire slate. He is locked in right now, the breaking balls are elite, and the current Astros lineup has plenty of potential Ks in it. Guessing we see a 5.5 for him as well, and I will likely grab it if the price is right.
Stay green!
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