MLB Betting Preview: April 29th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: STL vs. CIN, ATL vs. COL, MIN vs. CLE, NYY vs. BAL, WAS vs. PHI
Best parks for home runs: STL vs. CIN, WAS vs. PHI
Early HR targets: Lars Nootbaar (STL), Jazz Chisholm (NYY), Austin Hays (CIN)
Pitchers I like: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), Shota Imanaga (CHC), Chris Sale (ATL)
Pitchers I would fade: Charlie Morton (BAL), German Marquez (COL), Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Our first full slate of the week brings a lot of nice offensive park factor setups, and plenty of aces for K Props too. It’s also a major DFS day with Tacos on PrizePicks (I nailed all 3 pairings last week!), promos on Sleeper and likely some on Underdog.
First look at Hitter Props:
Finally, a slate full of great options, so how do we hone in on the best spots? For Home Runs, it is GABP by a wide margin for now (Reds vs. Cards), followed by the Nats & Phillies though both SPs have been piling up the whiffs in that matchup. For Runs in general, it is always Coors but also GABP again as just an elite offensive environment given the park dimensions, temps, air pressure, and even the pitching going. It’s actually the best spot for HR Parlays we’ve seen all season up to this point.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Jazz Chisholm (NYY) vs. Morton: 30 PAs, .357 Avg & 3 HRs
Manny Machado (SD) vs. Webb: 35 PAs, .344 Avg & 1 HR
Ozzie Albies (ATL) vs. Marquez: 11 PAs, .364 Avg & 2 HRs
Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Alcantara: 14 PAs, .462 Avg & 2 HRs
Jake Burger (TEX) vs. Severino: 16 PAs, .385 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
My 2 favorite aces to back on this slate are the Japanese phenoms that came over together last season. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) gets the terrible Marlins in a match made in heaven, and then Shota Imanaga (CHC) gets the Pirates who are probably the 2nd best streaming matchup after Miami. Guessing we see a 6.5 & a 5.5 respectively, but I would entertain going higher if needed depending on lineups. I also really like the matchup for Tanner Bibee (CLE), though he has yet to fully put everything together this season—but maybe it happens this time out.
Ace that I could see taking the Over on, depending on opening lines, but that also have minor concerns: Chris Sale (ATL) gets the terrible Rockies but it’s also in Coors, Garrett Crochet (BOS) is always in play but has a very tough K matchup in the Jays, Jacob deGrom (TEX) looks more like himself each time out but the Athletics just saw him, and Zack Wheeler (WAS) is also always in play but the Nats have seen him a lot and have been striking out a lot less lately.
Most of the Dodgers best hitters have seen Sandy Alcantara (MIA) a ton, and he should struggle to generate whiffs in this spot. It feels like an unplayable 4.5 type of setup, but you never know what the books might throw at us for an opening line.
Other SPs that I am very interested in but want to see lines first: Nick Pivetta (SD), Logan Webb (SF), Freddy Peralta (MIL), Carlos Rodon (NYY) & Bryce Miller (SEA).
Potential fades that I am watching closely: German Marquez (COL), Bowden Francis (TOR), Bryse Wilson (CWS), Charlie Morton (BAL), & Taj Bradley (TB).
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
