MLB Betting Preview: April 30th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: ATL vs. COL, STL vs. CIN (both games)
Best parks for home runs: STL vs. CIN (G2), STL vs. CIN (G1), ATL vs. COL
Early HR targets: Nolan Arenado (STL), Spencer Steer (CIN), Pete Alonso (NYM)
Pitchers I like: Michael King (SD), Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Pitchers I would fade: Cal Quantrill (MIA), Carlos Carrasco (NYY), Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT)
Hard not to love GABP (in Cincinnati) for some Home Runs and then like always: Coors for some Runs in general. On the pitching side, there are no absolute smash spots or must-plays, so we will see what the books give us for lines.
First look at Hitter Props:
Just like last night—before the weather ruined our fun—GABP for the Reds and Cards look nice for Home Runs. It’s not the park factor setup it was last night, but it’s still solid. And then like always, Coors is very much alive for all other hitter props (and even some Home Runs).
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Alejandro Kirk (TOR) vs. Giolito: 11 PAs, .364 Avg & 3 HRs
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Burnes: 16 PAs, .400 Avg & 3 HRs
Nolan Arenado (STL) vs. Abbott: 14 PAs, .462 Avg & 2 HRs
Jake Burger (TEX) vs. Severino: 16 PAs, .385 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
This is the first time in a long time that I do not see any huge standout spots for Overs. I love Michael King (SD) and what he has become as a starter, but the Giants can be a little contact scrappy. It will come down to what sort of price/line the books give us. I also think Matthew Boyd (CHC) is a sneaky play in a great matchup against the Pirates. Also, lefties vs. the Rockies is still very much a thing—even in Coors—so it’s hard not to love Chris Sale (ATL).
The rest of the slate is pretty subpar and I have my eye on multiple fade spots (aka Unders) that would otherwise be surprising for the pitchers I’m targeting: Corbin Burnes (ARI) against the Mets, Pablo Lopez (MIN) against the Guardians, Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) against the Athletics, & Drew Rasmussen (TB) against the Royals. These are great arms but the setups—whether the matchup, the park or the current state of their workload—all give me pause, and me may find some value.
Stay green!
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