MLB Betting Preview: May 1st, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIN vs. CLE, STL vs. CIN, CHC vs. PIT
Best parks for home runs: STL vs. CIN, MIN vs. CLE, MIL vs. CWS
Early HR targets: Jose Ramirez (CLE), Willson Contreras (STL), Matt McLain (CIN)
Pitchers I like: Justin Verlander (SF), Colin Rea (CHC)
Pitchers I would fade: Sean Burke (CWS), Brad Lord (WAS)
A couple obvious offensive parks to target in Cleveland & Cincinnati. Also, only a couple ace-type arms on the mound, with both having tough matchups leads to zero smash spots for Ks.
First look at Hitter Props:
This slate is pretty honed in on a couple spots with Coors Field finally off the grid for a bit. If you want home runs, it’s GABP in Cincy & if you want a bit of home runs and runs, it’s Cleveland—especially with a couple of solid SPs that do not know how to miss many bats. Lastly, it’s not quite as elite from a straight up park factor stand point, but both the Nats & Phillies should do well against some bad pitching in a generally great hitting venue.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Berrios: 18 PAs, .500 Avg & 3 HRs
Marcu Semien (TEX) vs. Springs: 15 PAs, .462 Avg & 3 HRs
Nolan Arenado (STL) vs. Abbott: 14 PAs, .462 Avg & 2 HRs
Gleyber Torres (DET) vs. Kikuchi: 30 PAs, .357 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
It’s 2025 and yet my favorite pitching spot on this slate is backing 42-year-old Justin Verlander (SF) at home against the Rockies, who are coming right into town on zero rest after playing at elevation over the last week. They are an amazing K matchup regardless, and that’s even more true when they’re on the road after a long home stand. I am guessing we see a 5.5 opening line, but would love it if they gave us a 4.5 to potentially grab multiple legs of a mini ladder. His slider should absolutely dominate in this spot.
Paul Skenes (PIT) just showed that he can be elite against literally any team in the league, but I still have some concerns facing the Cubs, and I would actually lean slightly Under for his 6.5 opening line.
Being such a lackluster group of arms from a pitching stand point, Unders/fades might be the best route on this slate. Sean Burke (CWS), Ben Lively (CLE), Andrew Abbott (CIN) & Simeon Woods-Richardson (MIN) all stand out as playable fades, with plenty more on the radar.
It will likely end up being a small overall K Prop card, which is fine as we are coming off 5 on Wednesday (and we cashed 4 of them to stay hot!).
Stay green!
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