MLB Betting Preview: May 2nd, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: WAS vs. CIN, MIN vs. BOS, KC vs. BAL
Best parks for home runs: WAS vs. CIN, ARI vs. PHI, TB vs. NYY
Early HR targets: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Ben Rice (NYY)
Pitchers I like: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD), Tarik Skubal (DET), Robbie Ray (SF), Dylan Cease (SD), Framber Valdez (HOU)
Pitchers I would fade: Mitchell Parker (WAS), Quinn Priester (MIL), Valente Bellozo (MIA)
It’s a great Friday for some home runs! Also, plenty of elite pitchers on the mound for all of your K Prop needs.
First look at Hitter Props:
The warmer weather is arriving, which means there will be bombs! The best home run setups—strictly from a park factor standpoint—are WAS vs. CIN, ARI vs. PHI, TB vs. NYY & KC vs. BAL. All 4 spots should see multiple HRs, giving you plenty of ways to try and cash a parlay or two. Outside of that, MIN vs. BOS also projects to play great for runs in general, which is the norm in Fenway.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Juan Soto (NYM) vs. Gray: 15 PAs, .500 Avg & 1 HR
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Wacha: 23 PAs, .455 Avg & 3 HRs
Trea Turner (PHI) vs. Kelly: 33 PAs, .393 Avg & 1 HR
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
There are a lot of aces on the slate, so I wanted to start this section by highlighting the ones with great matchups. Tarik Skubal (DET) gets the Angels who have been striking out a ton over the last couple of weeks, making a 6.5 feel very playable. The Braves’ bats can show up on any given night, but with the way Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) has been pitching, I absolutely love his opening price for o5.5 (there’s your free early play of the night for those not in the discord!). It’s also another night of a great whiff-generating lefty facing the Rockies, so I expect Robbie Ray (SF) to absolutely cruise. I also expect Dylan Cease (SD) to cruise against the extremely stream-worthy Pirates. Lastly, Framber Valdez (HOU) gets the terrible White Sox and should volume his way to plenty of Ks.
Potential fades (aka Unders) of guys that I just don’t trust and/or have tough matchups: Valente Bellozo (MIA), Antonio Senzatela (COL), Brayan Bello (BOS), Jonathan Cannon (CWS), Quinn Priester (MIL) & Logan Allen (CLE).
Stay green!
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