MLB Betting Preview: May 3rd, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: MIN vs. BOS, ARI vs. PHI, KC vs. BAL
Best parks for home runs: ARI vs. PHI, TB vs. NYY
Early HR targets: Ketel Marte (ARI), Brandon Lowe (TB), Ben Rice (NYY)
Pitchers I like: Jack Flaherty (DET), Hunter Brown (HOU), Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Pitchers I would fade: Jose Quintana (MIL), Zack Littell (TB), Bailey Falter (PIT)
We’re getting more and more nice HR spots by the day, as the weather warms up. Also, some solid pitchers going too, but the aces are lacking.
First look at Hitter Props:
The park setup for the DBacks and Phillies leads the way, and I would expect multiple HRs off of Nola & Pfaadt (and/or the bullpens). We also still have the short porch in the Bronx on the slate, plus GABP for plenty of ways to choose your favorite spots for some bombs.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Anthony Volpe (NYY) vs. Littell: 9 PAs, .625 Avg & 2 HRs
Christian Yelich (MIL) vs. Taillon: 33 PAs, .333 Avg & 2 HRs
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Nola: 14 PAs, .385 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
Jack Flaherty (DET) is missing a ton of bats and the Angels are missing a ton of pitches. It’s the perfect setup for his breaking balls to keep cooking and piling up the whiffs. I am guessing we see a 6.5 to open, so it will likely come down to the price on it.
The White Sox have been a great streaming target, and Hunter Brown’s (HOU) higher velocity should play up very well against them. If he gets a 5.5, it feels like a must-play.
I have not been a huge Kevin Gausman (TOR) fan lately, as he just hasn’t had his splitter at all. However, his new four seamer is putting in work and setting up the rest of his arsenal really nicely. This line (o4.5) is too low, and I locked it in with the Guardians having more potential K targets this season than they have had in a long time. There’s your freebie of the night after we cashed Yamamoto from last night with ease!
There are no other spots that standout to me as must-plays, so here are some potential fades (Unders) I am watching closely: Zack Littell (TB), Trevor Williams (WAS), Bailey Falter (PIT), & Jose Quintana (MIL).
Stay green!
Sports Gambling not legal in your state yet? Come play DFS with me instead! All of these apps are legally available in the vast majority of the country. I use them for K Prop parlays, hitter parlays and even Home Runs!
