MLB Betting Preview: May 4th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: KC vs. BAL, ARI vs. PHI, WAS vs. CIN
Best parks for home runs: ARI vs. PHI, WAS vs. CIN
Early HR targets: James Wood (WAS), Spencer Steer (CIN), Salvador Perez (KC)
Pitchers I like: Jacob deGrom (TEX), Logan Webb (SF), Garrett Crochet (BOS)
Pitchers I would fade: Andre Pallante (STL), Bryce Elder (ATL), Chris Paddack (MIN)
It’s Sunday, so I always play things light on the highest variance day of the MLB week. A lot of regular players get the day off or leave early to prepare for traveling and the new week. The best spots for HRs are Philly & Cincy, with no elite run spots. There are a lot of aces on the mound, so I may have more action than normal for a Sunday—we will see what lines drop.
First look at Hitter Props:
The DBacks & Phillies have the best park setup for some home runs, with the problem being the pitchers are both pretty great at keeping the ball in the yard. I do think the Phillies should hit a couple though, and I also love the Red Sox to tee off against Chris Paddack and the Royals to smoke Kyle Gibson.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Jonathan India (KC) vs. Gibson: 11 PAs, .300 Avg & 3 HRs
Xander Bogaerts (SD) vs. Heaney: 16 PAs, .500 Avg & 2 HRs
Matt Chapman (SF) vs. Marquez: 8 PAs, .375 Avg & 2 HRs
Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Suarez: 23 PAs, .381 Avg
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
There are some aces with nice matchups, which may lead to me grabbing more Sunday action than normal. Jacob deGrom (TEX) leads the way as he is looking more and more like himself each time out. He finished 6 shutout innings with 7 Ks on an absurd volume of only 65 pitches—literally nobody else in MLB can do that right now. Garrett Crochet (BOS) is also in a great spot against a lot of young Twins, but it is worth noting his extension is down and Fenway can always lead to blowups. I also like strikeout leader MacKenzie Gore (WAS) to keep piling up the whiffs, even if he gets touched for a little damage in the best park in the league for HRs.
Another spot I am eyeing is Logan Webb (SF) against the Rockies. Not much to say about that one; it’s the Rockies in a pitcher-friendly venue, so he should go deep. A couple more potential Overs that I love (I told you there were too many for a Sunday!) include Shota Imanaga (CHC), Nick Pivetta (SD) & Reese Olson (DET). All have great potential matchups depending on the lineups they see.
Fade watch (aka potential Unders) includes Andre Pallante (STL), Blade Tidwell (NYM), Bowden Francis (TOR), Bryce Elder (ATL), & Nick Martinez (CIN).
Stay green!
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