MLB Betting Preview: May 7th, 2025
My nightly rundown of park factors, pitcher matchups, hitter matchups and more to help you find early edges in the betting markets for tomorrow! Please note: things are always subject to change based on surprise lineups, weather, injuries and more.
Quick Summary First!
Best parks for offense: TEX vs. BOS, DET vs. COL, PHI vs. TB
Best parks for home runs: PHI vs. TB, SD vs. NYY
Early HR targets: Bryce Harper (PHI), Ben Rice (NYY), Kerry Carpenter (DET)
Pitchers I like: Bryan Woo (SEA), Hunter Greene (CIN), Grant Holmes (ATL)
Pitchers I would fade: Valente Bellozo (MIA), Jonathan Cannon (CWS), Chase Dollander (COL)
Both of the short HR porches (Tampa & the Bronx) are on the slate, plus Coors! On the pitching side, it’s a tricky slate but there’s plenty of potential…
First look at Hitter Props:
Now that the weather is warming up, I will focus a bit more on HRs each day (if there are spots worth playing). With both short porches in the mix, that puts anyone who can hit a flyball consistently out to right field in play for the Phillies/Rays & Padres/Yankees. However, Cristopher Sanchez and Max Fried are elite at getting ground balls, so I would choose my favorite Phillies & Yankees above all others in those spots.
We also have Coors Field on the slate, which as you all know by now is the best overall run producing environment in MLB (most nights). Fenway—which can also play up for runs—actually projects slightly better, so I love both spots if you are trying to get your Total Bases or HRR plays going.
Now onto batter vs. pitcher matchups! These never mean this is a must-bet situation, but they are nice point in favor of these bats:
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) vs. Gray: 22 PAs, .333 Avg & 3 HRs
Jonah Heim (TEX) vs. Houck: 7 PAs, .571 Avg & 3 HRs
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Kelly: 16 PAs, .313 Avg & 3 HRs
Adolis Garcia (TEX) vs. Houck: 12 PAs, .500 Avg & 2 HRs
As a reminder: it is almost always best to wait for lineups to drop before you lock in a hitter prop. The exception being if you are locking in a bet on a sportsbook that will void the wager if the hitter does not start the game. The last thing you want is to lose a bet because a player sat on the bench all game only to pinch hit in the 8th inning, get out, and then you take the L.
First look at K Props:
This is a tough pitching slate at first glance, with the couple of aces on the mound not exactly having smash matchups. With that said, Hunter Greene (CIN) is looking like Cy Young each time out, and the Braves have historically struggled vs. high velo pitching with their current core of players. Given his hot streak, the books will probably throw a 7.5 at us, but a 6.5 would feel like a must-play.
Bryan Woo (SEA) is also pitching great this season, churning out quality starts and Ks each time he takes the mound. The A’s are not striking out much at all, but I could see us getting a playable line—especially with a couple starters being due for a night off.
I think Charlie Morton (BAL) is completely cooked as a professional pitcher, and despite how bad they are, the Twins should bring enough contact to make him worthy of a fade. If it is a playble 4.5, I may bite (or at least watch it until we get a MIN lineup).
Coors is always a tough spot to project, but I could see some +Money value on both SPs if we get 4.5 lines again after their Tuesday rainout. Despite it being such a tough venue to pitch in, I actually like the potential for sniping an Over (or two!) once we get lineups, as both teams are full of guys who will chase. Chase Dollander (COL) has a four seamer that has already shown it can play at elevation, and Jackson Jobe (DET) has enough of a pitch mix to keep a very bad lineup off balance on the other side.
The last Over that I am interested in is Grant Holmes (ATL) against a lot of young free-swinging Reds. He often battles command issues, but he flashed his elite bat missing ability last time out as he K’d 9 Dodgers. This matchup is so much easier in every possible way. Since he is coming off of such a great start, we very likely see a 5.5, but if we do see 4.5 I am hammering that Over.
Other potential fades that I am watching closely: Valente Bellozo (MIA), Kodai Senga (NYM), Jonathan Cannon (CWS), & Gunnar Hoglund (ATH).
Stay green!
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